First Look at the Weekend

Now that it is Wednesday let's take a look at the weekend forecast.  But first a quick look at the short range.

Note- be careful with open flames over the next 7-10 days.  Fire danger will be high

Short Term Forecast
High pressure is located right near the New Brunswick and Nova Scotia coastlines.  There is another high in the southwest Atlantic.  Ridging continues to build at all levels so no major rainfall is in site.  Temperatures will be generally average- slightly above during day, slightly during night.  Current temps
4 am 2 m temps (image weatherbell)
These have continued to drop into the upper 30's as of the 530 hour.  Everyone will rebound to at least 60 today (coast), while inland areas will approach 70.  Here is the afternoon pressure fields
00z EURO MSLP Wed 8 pm (image weatherbell)
That will led to onshore flow in SE MA.  Skies will be sunny
06z NAM 10 m wind/direction 5 pm (image weatherbell)
So for temperatures I expect upper 60's-low 70's for much of MA, RI, and CT.  Cape and Islands will struggle to get to 60 while coastal RI/CT will be near 65.
08z RAP 2 m temp 3 pm (image weatherbell)
Tonight lows will fall into upper 40's in the interior.  The same areas that are cooler today will be cooler tonight- try low 40's.  A cold front will try to approach from the west but it will be blocked.  Here is the surface forecast tomorrow morning
WPC surface forecast Thur 8 am
The Cape and other coastal locations will face a sea breeze that will keep temperatures down a bit.  For everyone else temps should rise into the low 70's.  Skies will remain sunny
06z NAM hires 2 m temp Thur 1 pm (image weatherbell)
As I mentioned the cold front moving from the west will be blocked- here is the 500 mb pattern
00z EURO 500 mb anomaly Thur 8 pm (image weatherbell)
While the dip in the Midwest will not be able to push east, a low offshore will help back a coastal front inland Thursday night.  There may be an isolated shower on Thursday night as this boundary pushes through.  Odds are low and it will not be appreciable precipitation.  Here is the Friday morning surface forecast
WPC Fri 8 am surface forecast
The high backs over the top of New England and flow is out of the Northeast.  This is a cool wind and will make Friday the coolest of the week.  Inland temps will still approach 60
06z NAM hires 2 m temp Fri 2 pm (image weatherbell)
Overnight temps will fall into the upper 40's/low 50's.

First Weekend Forecast
Temperatures will begin to rebound on Saturday.  The winds will be out of the northwest and northeast
WPC Sat 8 am surface forecast
The EURO likes temperatures in the mid 60's
00z EURO 2 m temps Sat PM (image weatherbell)
Skies will be sunny and winds fairly light.  Lows drop into the upper 40's on Saturday night.  On Sunday temperatures are once again near 70
00z EURO 2 m temps Sun PM (image weatherbell)
This forecast looks like it will be on repeat for the next week at least.  Here is the 5 day precipitation outlook
00z EURO 5 day precip totals (image weatherbell)
There is plenty of moisture streaming into the mid part of the country (which is good they need it) but this shows how strong a temperature gradient exists across the middle of the US.  I'm glad we are on this side of it.  Here is the current drought monitor for the Northeast.  I expect this to grow over the next several weeks.  I was off on my May forecast as I expected a cool wet month.  That is clearly not the case
4/23/13 drought monitor 
Finally here is what the world's oceans look like this morning
OSPO SST anomaly 4/29/13
All that heat in the Atlantic will be released in the form of American Heat Waves and Tropical Cyclones.  El Nino will not come on (we can see strong upwelling off South American coast) so no changes to what will be an active summer.  Lets enjoy the calm weather!














Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Saturday Weather Thoughts

Winter Storm Stella Set To Deliver Blow To Region

You Didn't Really Think Winter Was Over, Did You?