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Showing posts from June, 2015

Severe Threat Still Exists

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Two rounds of severe weather are likely in Southern New England today.  It does appear as if the first round of thunderstorms will help to limit the potential for the second round.  We are still at risk for frequent lightning, damaging wind, large hail and torrential downpours.  The tornado threat is small, but not zero.  Still if we able to get the sun out all morning/early afternoon there would be a greater chance at a significant twister. 

GENERAL OVERVIEW
The regional radar shows two main areas of showers and thunderstorms.  One is moving through Northern New England, the other through NY, PA and heading towards SW New England.
Short range guidance is indicating this holds together and impacts Southeastern New England by 12-1 PM.   A lot of the action right now is driven by a warm boundary driving northeast into the region.  Out ahead of this the sun is breaking out in Worcester County and even from time to time in Andover. 


The Storm Prediction Center has taken note of this and is…

Severe Weather Likely Tomorrow

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Powerful thunderstorms have left a swath of damage across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today.  Tomorrow this system will slide east and bring the severe weather threat to New England.  Everything is on the table including tornadoes.  That said all the ingredients need to come together for widespread severe weather outbreak. 

GENERAL OVERVIEW
A large complex of showers and thunderstorms is speeding through the Great Lakes.  This complex has a history of producing wind gusts over 74 MPH.
Here are the storm reports so far
At the surface we see a wave of low pressure and an accompanying warm front forcing its way through Michigan.
This is being driven by a potent shortwave in the middle levels of the atmosphere.  It is sliding above a mid level ridge in the southwest
By tomorrow afternoon the upper air pattern will evolve into this
The surface chart will look like this
This puts NH, VT, western ME, and all of Southern New England in the warm sector.  The orientation of the upper air w…

Showers Possible This PM, Tropical Storm Bill Forms

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While we would like to sun the today, leftover clouds from yesterday will help to limit the potential for thunderstorms this afternoon.  The big weather story is in Texas where Tropical Storm Bill formed last night and will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Central/Northern Texas coast.  By Sunday the remnants of Bill may bring periods of rain to Southern New England.  Until then we see mostly seasonable weather, with a chance of storms Thursday night.

GENERAL OVERVIEW
Here is the 5 am surface analysis from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)
The front south of New England has yet to lift north through the region.  It will as the trailing cold front moves east.  Here are the temperatures as of 7 am
By 8 PM tonight the trailing front will have swept offshore.
Before this front clears the region high temperatures should rise to around 80.
Some showers or weak thunderstorms are possible as the cold front moves through.  Lightning is always dangerous but I am not expecting hail or sev…

Welcome Rain Monday

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After temperatures in the 80s today high pressure will slide offshore and a front will bring welcome rains to the region overnight tonight into tomorrow.  Warm temperatures return Tuesday with the threat of thunderstorms, although the greatest potential appears to be in Eastern NY and Western MA/NW CT.  As the week progresses a weak tropical system will likely impact the Texas coast.  It will be embedded in the jet stream and may enhance precipitation in our region late this weekend.
Temperatures as of 1 PM were in the upper 70s/low 80s
Light rain will break out around 10-11 PM from west to east.  Heavy rain will arrive just in time for the lovely Monday morning commute.

Anyone who has to use our wonderful interstate system to go to work knows what the combination of Monday, heavy rain, and rush means.  Give yourself extra time.  Here is the projected surface chart at 8 am.
 Notice the red warm front to the southwest of New England.  High temperatures tomorrow will struggle to reach 6…

UPDATE 320 PM-Severe Thunderstorms Possible Today

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The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH for Central and Western New England
The cold front is pushing east and is entering a somewhat favorable environment for thunderstorms.  A strong line of storms has exploded in the Hudson River Valley heading towards Western MA/VT/NW CT
Damaging wind and isolated severe hail will be the main threats.  Perhaps a micro-burst or two with the warm moist environment that is in place.  The best threat looks to be Springfield to Worcester to Nashua, NH north and west.  Keep an eye to the sky as it may impact areas like the Blackstone Valley and Merrimack Valley.  Boston should be fine. The threat relaxes early this evening (8 PM latest). 

Previous discussion below
On this date 62 years ago the worst tornado in New England history ripped through Worcester, MA.  94 people lost their lives.  A separate tornado ripped through Sutton, Northbridge, and Mendon.  Thankfully the towns were not as densely populated (speci…

Tornado Watch for Portions of Western New England

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A tornado watch has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK for Berkshire County in Western Massachusetts and Bennington County in SW Vermont. 
A surface low pressure system is moving across Ontario with a trailing cold front and a leading warm front.  The tornado threat is in between the warm and cold front.
As of 1 PM temperatures were a good 5-10 degrees warmer in NY and PA
Short range, high resolution guidance is showing the potential for a nasty round of storms from Albany towards Pittsfield, MA. 
These will fall apart as they head east so no worries in Southeastern New England from any severe weather (at least today).  Although I believe Western New England has the greatest chance of severe weather tomorrow there could be isolated storms further east.
 I'll post in the morning with the latest.

-Zack Green

Cold and Damp Through Tuesday

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On Patriots Day in April a soaking steady rain fell.  Until yesterday that was the last appreciable precipitation event.  We do need it so this is welcome
Even if temperatures like this are more like early April than June 1.  Many of us woke up to temperatures in the upper 40's. 
We are going to do much better as the day goes on.  Rounds of rain are expected to move across a stalled frontal boundary to our south. 
The low in PA is responsible for this mornings round of showers.  We should see a let up in the late morning early afternoon hours.  The air mass is unstable so isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop but they will not be as widespread.  The widespread rainfall threat will resume this evening and into tomorrow.  For this reason a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for much of CT and N RI.
We are looking at as much as 2-3 additional inches of rain through 8 am tomorrow.

This will wipe out the drought in some places (although its certainly possible that it returns lat…