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Showing posts from November, 2012

Tuesday Snow Forecast

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There has been a subtle shift to the north with guidance overnight.  Its not unexpected, but will make tonight's commute a little slower.  Also watch for black ice if out tonight.  Highest snow totals for SNE look to be over the in Bristol and Plymouth counties.  Expecting about 1.5 inches in the Blackstone Valley.  Snow starts late morning/early afternoon and carries on until after midnight.  When the sun goes down road some snow may stick to the roads where it comes down the heaviest.

HPC has upped snow probabilities into New England...now a wide swath has a 10% chance of 4 inches of snow
All in all not a big deal, biggest issue will be with slick roads.  Moisture already streaming into SNE is evaporating before reaching the surface.  This will continue for awhile.  It will be cold tonight, bundle up.
Winds will remain light as this storm system is not very strong and there is not a tight pressure gradient.  The snow won't stick around too long although watching a clipper f…

Tuesday Snow Event...How Much?

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Temperatures will moderate slightly for Monday, but winds will still gust to 25 mph so another cool and brisk day is on tap to kick off the final week of November.  Things change Tuesday as a generally light snowstorm moves into the region.  Most model guidance is keeping snowfall totals less than 2 inches but it will be falling Tuesday afternoon into the evening.  This will means the high school football playoff games will be played in snow.  Great for the players...and coaches who get to sit in a heated press box but for everyone watching the game dress warm.  
The chart above shows less than a 10 percent chance of snowfall exceeding 4 inches in WV and PA and no chance anywhere in Southern New England.  The model support for a big event has gone away.   This is Tuesday night at 7 PM.  Temperatures will be running in the upper 20's/lower 30's for most. A track slightly north of what is currently being forecast would bring those heavier precipitation bands into Southern New En…

Saturday Morning Weather Discussion

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For the second time this November snow is in the forecast.  The 50 degree weather has went away for now.  For those of you who hate snow this isn't welcome, but the 50's may return in the long range.  We are going to have to deal with snow Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.  Until then we are due for a stretch of below normal temperatures.

Weekend
There could be a snow flurry today; other wise partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures in the low 40's.    Tonight is mostly clear allowing the heat to escape the surface; the result is lows in the lower 20's.  The coldest valleys where this cold air sinks will drop into the upper teens.  Sunday is more of the same although it will be harder to break 40 tomorrow.  If we could gamble on weather the line would be 38.5 degrees.  Clouds will be on the increase Sunday afternoon so Sunday night will not be as cold.  Temps in the mid to upper 20's.
The divide in temperatures clearly shows the cold front.  Here it is on the…

Calm Weather Through Thanksgiving then Winter?

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A pleasant pattern has taken control over our weather and left us with cold mornings but seasonable afternoons.  This pattern continues until Saturday, gradually becoming warmer and warmer each afternoon.  High pressure is the dominant feature on the eastern US charts
The storm I originally predicted for this week is on the charts, but will stay out to sea.  After Sandy and then the nor'easter I jumped the storm gun a little early but our coastal residents need a break.  The high pressure will continue to build south gradually changing the wind direction to the southwest by the end of the week.  This will allow temperatures to approach the upper 50's.  At the same time a low pressure system will move across the boundary between the arctic air and the air mass we currently are in.
The red/orange/brown colors indicate warmer than average temperatures while the blue/green/white/purple indicate colder than normal temperatures.  If this is correct (which it usually is) then we can…

Rain today, Quiet Pattern Follows

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The highest temperatures of the day are being recorded right now.  A strong cold front is pushing east across New York and into New England.  There is a strong temperature gradient
Along this gradient there are heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms First band will likely reach Central MA before 7 am while the bulk o the rain will fall between 9 AM and 3 PM.  Short range computer guidance has hinted at some moderate thunderstorms around 7-8 AM.  Temperatures will drop like a rock after the cold front passes.  Expect temperatures to fall from the mid 60's to the upper 40's.   After today the weather settles down for a 4-5 day stretch.  Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s Wednesday through Sunday.  Skies will be mostly sunny until Sunday, when clouds will begin to build back in.
There is a lot of chatter about a potential Nor'Easter next week.  It looks likely that something will form and try to move up the coast.  The American GFS from Dr Ryan Maue's Weatherb…

Nor'easter thoughts

My take on Nor'easter found at the Tornado Titans homepage

Midweek Nor'easter to Impact Region

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There will be a strong nor'easter developing along the east coast this week.  While the intensity of this nor'easter (May receive a name from the Weather Channel; would be Athena) will pale in comparison to Sandy, it will cause further problems for the areas hardest hit by the storm.  For coastal areas additional flooding is likely and for areas well away from the center a healthy dumping of snow will occur.  There is high agreement among model guidance on this event which is remarkable for this range.  When there is a block in the Atlantic computer guidance skill increases according to Dr. Ryan Maue of Weatherbell.

I'll show the evolution of this system and add some analysis on the weather preceding the Nor'Easter.  Please remember that in the atmosphere pressure decreases with height.  900 mb is around 5000 feet, 500 mb is around 18,000 feet and 300 mb is around 30,000 feet.
Surface
A strong low pressure system is about to impact the Pacific Northwest.  High pressure …

Upcoming Weather, Nor'Easter Next Week

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One of the toughest things to do in meteorology is get back to the "regular" weather after a big storm.  Many meteorologists chose to study the science due to love of big storms, often from a very young age.  After Hurricane Sandy it was a little boring for a day.  Then the charts picked up something interesting for next week.  On Wednesday morning I buried a nugget about potential snow next week.  Its still on the table, but there are also signals that this storm will run along the coast and into New England, rather than just offshore which is the snow track.  First off the weekend forecast.
Friday Mostly Cloudy, temperature around 50.  Chance of sprinkle today/flurry tonight.  Tonight low 33
Saturday Mix of sun and clouds.  High 48. Light wind from Northwest 6-10 mph. Saturday night low 32.
Sunday Mix of sun and clouds. High 48.  Steadier Northwest wind of 10-14 mph, gusts to 25. Sunday night low 26.
Monday Mainly sunny, high 41.  Monday night low of 24.
Tuesday Sunny, high 42.…

Final Sandy Thoughts

Posted at Tornado Titans