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Showing posts from 2017

Memorial Day Weekend Outlook

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I apologize for the lack of posts in recent days.  I've been working on several projects that require a higher priority than the routine mid to late spring weather pattern.  Memorial Day weekend is a landmark for most Americans.  First and foremost we pause to remember those who died fighting for our right to live freely.  It's also the unofficial start to the summer season and many Americans party in honor of the long weekend.  Many of these parties are outdoors which require a decent weather forecast.  There may be a chance of showers but should you make alternative plans?

Short Term Forecast
Low pressure tracking northeast and a front south of New England have brought more rain to the region.  So far this month 3-6" has fallen across most of SNE.
At the surface, the low is slowly tracking northeast.  The center is shown here near Washington, DC.
There is a strong air mass contrast south of the warm front and north of it.  This allowed for the rain shield to blossom we…

Summer Like Heat Means Summer Like Storms?

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Short range, high-resolution computer guidance is suggesting the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms this evening across Southern New England.  A lot of ingredients for nocturnal thunderstorms will be present across the region from early this evening through midnight.  The atmosphere will be unstable thanks to blistering mid-summer heat that has taken hold over the past 2 days.
A sea breeze is protecting communities along Narragansett Bay and on Cape Cod.  Temperatures will continue to rise, even as a few clouds develop in Southeastern New England.  These should burn off by late afternoon.  To our west lies a cold front.
The current Northeast regional radar does not look all that impressive.  Some convection is firing in Western New York, but nothing significant at the moment.
The simulated radar loop, however, looks very impressive as we move forward this afternoon/evening.
This afternoon and early this evening will be dry, just hot.  Thunderstorms are expected to enter Wes…

Mother's Day Gift Is On Back Order

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Low pressure off the New England coast will send backlash rains and winds across Eastern New England this afternoon through the night and into Monday.  The rain will end midday tomorrow and my Mother's Day gift to all will be a return of warm weather Tuesday.  I tried to have it sent for today but Mother Nature does what she wants when she wants (like a good woman should).  I'm pretty sure my own beautiful mother does not read my blog so she won't know her gift is on back order and I'd appreciate if no one told her.  She doesn't like to be "on the internet" anyway.
General Overview Temperatures as of 11 AM were in the 50's in SE MA but 40's everywhere else. Look what happened in the higher elevations of Vermont this morning.  This is shades of 1977 (perhaps we can thank climate change for missing out on this snow). I saw the potential for a few flakes when looking over the data yesterday, but nothing I saw indicated that a plowable snowfall was lik…

Special Report- The SNE Gypsy Moth Problem

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Most residents of South Central Worcester County remember the Gypsy Moth Outbreak of 2016 well.   The Route 16 corridor from Webster to Mendon looked like November in June.  Not every tree was impacted by the invasive species nor was every community.  The drought conditions are directly related to the outbreak.  The caterpillars are back, they are numerous, and they are hungry.  There are some steps residents and business owners can take to protect their property but it will be impossible to protect every tree in Southern New England from these critters.
A General History
The 2016 outbreak was the first mass gypsy moth outbreak since 1981, but the problem goes back over a century.  The blame can be placed squarely on the shoulders of Etienne Leopold Trouvelot.  Trouvelot was a Frenchman who moved to Medford, MA in the 1850's.  He brought a bunch of gypsy moth eggs with him and tried to raise a colony in the forest behind his house.  Reports indicate he was trying to breed the gypsi…

Another Soaker This Weekend

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The weather this week would not be out of place in late October or early November.  The coastal storm this weekend will be no exception.  A strong, late-season nor'easter will pass southeast of New England Saturday night.  The storm will drop 1-2" of rain with 35-45 MPH wind gusts.  If this storm hit in February you would probably have to mute me because the atmospheric configuration of this storm is similar to a mid-winter blockbuster.  Alas, it is May 12 so we will have to deal with a soaking cold rain and the switch to 70's and 80's that will happen next week. Of course, 40 years ago this week a funny thing happened.
The NWS folks said it best; it could be worse.  Over 500k lost power in Central and Eastern MA from the heavy, wet snow.

General Set-Up
Several pieces of energy moving through the Southeast will consolidate near the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday AM to form the storm.  Here is where these features will be around 2 PM this afternoon.
On satellite, we see a…

Scattered Showers This Afternoon

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Cold air in the upper atmosphere will help to keep temperatures in the 50's with scattered showers this afternoon.  This cold air is left over from the rainstorm over the weekend.  While the cold pool will slowly dissipate and move east, it will linger for the rest of the week.  The weather will be dry most of the time, but a few isolated showers will be possible.

General Overview/Current Conditions
Temperatures have fallen into the mid 30's across most of Southern New England.  Clear skies and light winds have led to the development of frost in SE MA.
The projected surface map this afternoon doesn't look all that impressive.
The simulated radar shows precipitation developing after 11 AM.
Winds will remain light and variable today.  Temperatures will max out in the low to mid 50's for most.  A few locations will flirt with 60.
Temperatures tonight will again fall into the mid 30's.  Frost will again develop in the typically prone regions.  Temperatures are forecast …