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Showing posts from November, 2011

Extended Forecast

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First off I hope everyone is enjoying there Thanksgiving weekend.  A very nice Saturday is shaping up across Southern New England.  High pressure is just off of the North Carolina coast and is responsible for the unseasonably warm November weather.  The run of above average weather will continue until the North Atlantic Oscillation reverts to its negative phase.  The University of Columbia has made some nice graphics illustrating the effects of the NAO.
When the NAO is positive, the pressure gradient between Greenland and the Azores Islands is greater so storms are stronger; the Pressure Gradient Force is on of the most important forces in Atmospheric Science.
In the Negative Phase Greenland warms up while the East Coast is prone to more snowy outbreaks.  These graphics are slightly outdated and slightly incorrect, but it captures the general idea of the NAO.
Check out Columbia's webpage here.
For virtually all of November the NAO has been positive and it looks like it will contin…

Thanksgiving Week Forecast & Discussion

A nice weekend is shaping up for everyone.  High pressure will keep conditions calm and dry into Tuesday.  Tuesday night is when things get interesting as a storm system will lift out of the Midwest and develop a surface low pressure system off the coast.  There are two different model camps right now.  The American GFS, SREF, and GEFS favor a west to east track and the system would be gone by Wednesday evening, albeit dropping heavy rain for the majority of the overnight and morning hours.  The EURO and the NAM are both slower and they result in a phasing of the north and south Jet Streams, giving the storm a north Southwest-Northeast track.  This would be later and I feel a greater chance of snow on the backside with this scenario. Its too early to make a call but there is a near certainty for heavy rain.  A track closer to the coast is expect because the North Atlantic Oscillation is in its positive phase, meaning low pressure is semi-stationary between Greenland and Iceland.  As a…

Snow Showers this afternoon

Yesterday's rains are departing as the cold front and low pressure system that brought it exits the coast.  However a secondary area of low pressure will develop this afternoon and coat the ground with a few hours of snow, just in time for the evening commute.  Most models are in agreement that between 0.20-0.30 of liquid will fall so some areas may see an inch.  Most places the roads will be fine, but be aware that the snow will be falling.

Friday will be chilly, highs only in the mid 40's with a blustery west wind.  The weekend is sunny with highs in the 50's.  More detailed post on weekend and next week later today.

National Grid Blames Weather forecast for Power Delays

National Grid has been publicly criticized for its slow response in returning power to the nearly 500,000 people who lost it during the Nor'Easter two weeks ago.  I was defending the company; October storms like that are rarely seen.  I think the state is wasting money, time, and resources investigating what happened.  They will probably find that the crews worked as hard and as fast as they could to restore power but the damage was too extensive for everyone to have their power back right away.  That's okay, we are an impatient society that wants everything done for us RIGHT NOW!  What's not okay is blaming the weather forecast for the slow response.  Here is the story from WBZ.

Some highlights...
National Grid executives now say the forecast was “fundamentally missed by meteorologists”, who “really underestimated the moisture” and “missed on the weight of the snow.”


Now I'm not trying to toot my own horn, but here is my forecast from the Thursday before the storm.  He…

Sunshine tomorrow, Rain Thursday

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I hope you all enjoyed our Indian Summer afternoon.  Indian Summer is defined as a day with temperatures above 70 degrees after the first freeze.  How about 70 degrees after our first snowstorm?  We have received zero precipitation since the Snow-tober Nor'Easter.  That run will continue into tomorrow before breaking on Thursday.  A warm front moved northward and helped steer high pressure offshore, bringing a southwesterly flow to Southern New England.  This is the easy part of the forecast because a combination of Tropical Storm Sean and an approaching cold front will spawn a low pressure system that will track through Southern New England.  Model Guidance is not in agreement in regards to Sean as the system is forecast to stall.  The official National Hurricane Center track curves the storm around Bermuda.  The short range North American Model (NAM) sends the storm into Nova Scotia, spawning a heavy Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) Thursday afternoon.   A PRE occurs because of the…

Great Weather Ahead

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In the short term, the good weather will continue and even warm up next week.  Although some big changes are coming down the line (more on this later), we will have to enjoy the short sleeve weather when we get it.  So what we have is an area of high pressure dominating the weather across the eastern half of the United States. The weather will be great for the Game of the Century tonight (LSU 24 Alabama 20).  Here is the surface map...
Because air flows in a clockwise manner around a high pressure system, our "air" is currently coming from Canada, therefore it is cool and dry.  However that high pressure area, currently centered near Toronto, will slide southeast, flipping the north wind to a southwesterly wind.  That will allow for temperatures to moderate.  As long as the sky cover is mainly clear, I see most places getting into the upper 60's and MAYBE low 70's on Tuesday and Wednesday.   We are currently experiencing a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscilla…