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Showing posts from February, 2013

Unsettled Pattern Through Weekend

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Yesterday's storm brought over an inch of rain to most of Southern New England along with wind gusts in excess of 50 mph.  There was also snow in the highest elevations of Massachusetts and New Hampshire.  Here is a list of storm reports from the NWS.  Due to an upstream block in the atmosphere the system is taking its time to exit the Northeast but its not strong.
At the surface we see several low pressure centers We see low pressure north of Lake Ontario and along the Maine coast.  There is a another low pressure center developing near Maryland, which is picked up on the HPC surface analysis This system has been largely driven by the upper level energy and that continues this morning.  Here is the 500 mb chart from 1 AM As this spins toward the coast more weak low pressure centers should form and these will have the potential to drop some locally heavy rain.  It will be rain as its not all that cold this morning By afternoon we are jumping into the mid to upper 40's Short ra…

Slop North of the MA Pike, Rain South

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From what my eyes can see it has not snowed even a trace overnight in Northbridge and we have plain rain. That ok with me, you do not have to shovel rain.  Other areas well north and west will be doing the backbreaking work.

Current Conditions
Surface Temperatures Areas along the coast from NH down to CT were just too warm to support any snow.  Its not all that cold at the 925 mb level above the surface either A secondary low pressure has formed and is ushering warm marine air off the Atlantic.  Here is what the surface looks like High pressure to the north is not strong enough to lock cold in as its almost March, we need some serious Arctic air for a snowstorm.  Instead the higher elevations will see a solid snowfall.  Here is the NAM hires snowfall totals What I find interesting is the how detailed this high resolution model is.  It is showing snow in all the higher elevations (Worcester Hills, Adirondacks, Berkshires, etc) and rain in the valley's along the rivers (Blackstone, …

Mainly Rain for SNE

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Snow will fall tomorrow night into the morning before changing over to plain rain.  A surge of warm marine air will work into New England overwhelming the cold at mid levels.  The Berkshires, extreme Northern Worcester County, and NH, VT, and ME will do well with this storm.

Timing
Snow breaks out West of 495 in MA and North of 95 in RI/CT between 1-4 AM.  It will accumulate in these areas until 7-8 AM before daylight and warm air take over South of the MA Pike.  Here is the latest NAM with snow totals by 10 AM Wed
I expect Northern Worcester County to do better than this model is advertising but the rest looks good.    The NAM and EURO agree in principle.  Here is the storm total by Thursday Morning Total precipitation  Finally there is some hint that another low pressure system tries to form Thursday Afternoon/night.  It may be like Sunday afternoon or something heavier in SNE.  I'm still watching that.  Average confidence in the forecast overall.  
Enjoy today, highs in upper 3…

Winter Storm Begins Wednesday

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A major winter storm in the Southern Plains will push towards the Great Lakes (just like last week) and greet New England with a wintry slop on Wednesday.  Before then we will see a mix of sun and clouds on Tuesday with highs in the low 40's in Southern New England and mid to upper 30's in Central and Northern New England.  Now onto the storm
Current Observations Quite a few watches and warnings across the United States There are winter storm watches and warnings, Blizzard warnings, Tornado Watches, Ice Storm Warnings among others.  The primary systems driving these are shown on the surface chart A surface low pressure in Oklahoma is producing the major snow from the Texas Panhandle through NW Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois.  As the storm occludes to the Northeast a new low pressure center will gradually develop and grab Gulf Moisture and head along the Mid Atlantic coast and eventually New England. 
By tomorrow evening the storm will be taking shape A good slug of sn…

Short Range Forecast, Long Range Discussion

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Looking back on this storm I made several mistakes.  First of all I am jumping on the long range a bit too quickly.  To be fair there was considerable agreement 3-4 days out, then it backed away as it became apparent the main storm would be weaker.  I also knew Central New England was going to get pounded but compromised with 6-10.  Many locations are already exceeding that with additional snow to come. Here in Southern New England rain is changing to snow The bright colors in SE MA is a good approximation as to where the rain/snow line is.  Here is the surface analysis  Notice the primary low south of the Cape.  That system was largely responsible for the snow/rain yesterday.  Today we seeing an interaction between an Upper level system with a weak surface low (remnants of the Plains snowstorm earlier in the week) and the coastal storm.   Cyclonic (counter clockwise) flow around both is leading to a convergence zone in Maine/NH as well as SE MA.  Temperatures are crashing, so most pl…

Winter Storm Watches Downgraded to Winter Weather Advisory

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The storm that looked so promising (for snow lovers) early in the week has largely trended warmer and weaker.  I'm not a fan of changing a forecast because A) it means I was wrong and B) no one likes a flip flopper.  None the less when there is no support left for a 48 hour forecast I must blow it up and start over.
The National Weather Service has downgraded its Winter Storm Watches to a Winter Storm Advisory.  The NWS likes this for snowfall totals
Often times a more southerly storm track will lead to a colder solutions.  High pressure is not found in the ideal location; its too far east The high is over Hudson Bay and another high in Quebec near the Gulf of St. Lawrence.  That is not allowing for a true northerly flow.  Current Temps As the weak low pressure lifts north it will warm the upper levels too.  It should be mostly wet from Springfield to Worcester to Boston overnight.  If any heavier bands of precipitation develop and make it onshore they could create enough cold ai…

Winter Storm Watches Posted

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A winter storm watch was issued by the National Weather Service in Taunton for Hampden, Hampshire, Franklin, Worcester, Middlesex, and Essex county from Saturday Afternoon-Sunday Afternoon.
All systems are go for a moderate to major storm.  Again we will not see the Blizzard of 2013 again but this time around Southern New England is in for heavy wet snow which will take down trees and power lines.  First lets talk about today's weather.
Current Conditions High pressure still in control in Ontario, a major snowstorm is cutting towards the Great Lakes and also occluding, and a front/low pressure loaded with precipitation is working through the Southeast.
The transfer from the upper level low to the coast will begin tomorrow morning but before that we will have a calm relatively mild Friday. Most will rise into the upper 30's and some lucky ones will get into the low 40's.  
Storm Update Rumor has it that the TV stations are all over the place with snowfall totals (I honestly d…

Short Term Forecast/Weekend Update

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For the third straight weekend there is a Nor'easter for meteorologists and weather enthusiasts to track (early heads up-something wild next weekend is lurking to make it 4/4).  For the first time this year a rain/snow line will try to work north and west.  I think it will struggle to get past 495 or north of the Pike but those areas will see a brief mix with rain or sleet.

Short Term Forecast
After a cold start temperatures will only rebound into the upper 20's/low 30's
As I mentioned yesterday high pressure over Central Canada moved to its east so we will be under the influence of more direct Northwesterly winds I've drawn the path of a major, potentially record breaking snowstorm in the plains and the wind flow around the high.  First of all the wind flow around the high will support temperatures like this Overnight lows will drop into the lower 20's/upper teens.  By Friday the track of the Central storm (aka "Q") will lift some warmer air into New Engl…