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Showing posts from December, 2016

Recapping the Coastal Storm, Looking Ahead to New Years Weekend

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Maine took the brunt of this winter storm with widespread 1-2'.  Carroll County in NH was the big winner in the Granite State with most locals reporting 12-18".  The storm did disappoint in Western NH and Vermont thanks to its rapid forward motion.  That rapid forward motion also eliminated any chance for the 2-4" I called for as the rain finished as snow last night.  I should have just stuck to my coating up to 2" after the storm.  Northern Worcester County did well as Fitchburg clinched the MA State Title with 10.8" for this storm.  Congratulations to the Red Raiders on the well deserved honor.
Worcester and Hartford (Hartford is measured in Windsor Locks, CT at the airport) are pace for an average to above average snow season.  Providence and Boston are currently bringing up the rear.  This has been the trend for snowfall this season.  Lows cut to our west and switch snow over to rain in the Coastal Plain.   Ocean temps are still running in the mid 40's …

Strong Storm To Impact New England

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A powerful sub 970 mb low will skirt across Eastern Massachusetts into the Gulf of Maine Thursday night.  The low will move into Downeast Maine Friday AM.  Heavy snow will fall in Central and Northern New England away from the coast in all the big ski/snowboard areas.  Heavy rain will fall in Southern New England for much of the storm.  A change to snow late Thursday night could give Southern Worcester, Metro Springfield, and Northwest Middlesex county into Essex county 1-2".  Wind will gust 40-60 mph as the low deepens and moves through our region.

Short Term Forecast
Temperatures tonight will dip into the upper 20's as high pressure moves east into the Atlantic.  Winds will be light and skies will be party cloudy.
Temperatures are cold enough to support snow when it starts around 10 AM.  The atmosphere will be able to support snow in the western 2/3 of tMA through noon time before a change over to rain.  The rain snow line may jog back forth in the 495 belt from Essex Count…

A Messy Solution Likely Thursday

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There are two main ways to lock cold air into Southern New England before a big snowstorm.  Neither will be present on Thursday but a decent snowstorm is on the way for interior Southern New England/Northern New England.  Low pressure will track over the Canal allowing a surge of warm air to move into Eastern MA/RI/CT.  The inland track will change these regions to rain. The low will deepen rapidly as it swings into the Gulf of Maine.  Temperatures will drop sharply as this happens and a brief burst of heavy snow is likely in interior Eastern MA, South Central MA and Northern CT.  The deep pressure drop will also bring strong winds to Southeastern New England.

General Overview
If you notice the Thursday 7 PM surface chart in the headline graphic above note there is no high pressure in Southern Canada.  It is neither present in banana form (or Midwest Extension) as it was on December 26, 2010
Nor is it present on its own as it was on January 27, 2015 in my personal favorite blizzard.

AM Quick Cast

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Tuesday and Wednesday Weather (click to enlarge all images)
College forecast
Thursday Snow

Freezing Rain Advisory Issued

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A *Freezing Rain Advisory* has been issued from 3-11 PM this afternoon.  Precipitation is entering New England as of 2 PM ahead of a warm front.  Temperatures will surge into the 40's and 50's in Central and Eastern MA, RI and CT tonight ahead of the cold front.  A *Wind Advisory* has been posted for S RI and SE MA as the warm surge will be accompanied by 40-50 MPH wind gusts.  Some rain showers will accompany the cold frontal passage Tuesday AM.
The current Northeast radar loop shows some showers ready to move into Western New England.
Temperatures are in the low 30's in Central and Eastern MA and RI.  The CT River valley is also in the 30's.  As this first batch of enters Western MA it will start as sleet and freezing rain.
This precipitation will reach Worcester, Providence, and Boston between 430-630 PM.  Here is the US surface chart for 7 PM this evening.  This storm is the same complex that brought blizzard conditions to the Dakota's on Christmas Day.
It will…

Patriots on Christmas Eve

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Click on photo to enlarge.

Christmas Weekend Forecast

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It is dry for the champions already tailgating for the Pats-Jets game today.   This will change in the next 1-2 hours and rain will continue through the first half of the game.   Coach Belichick often defers to the 2nd half when the Patriots win the coin toss.  If you have anything to do outside it would be wise to make a similar choice.  Skies will clear this evening so Santa will not need Rudolph in the Northeast but he will in other parts of the country.
General Overview The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Northern Worcester County and the rest of Western Mass.  Northern CT with the exception of Windham County.   Freezing rain would appear to be the biggest threat at the higher elevations so if your holiday travels take you west drive carefully.  Temperatures are hovering near freezing outside of 495 and north of the Pike to 395.   The cold front that will bring the rain to SNE is moving quickly.  It has started as snow in Southwestern Worcester Co…

Light Snow Possible Thursday AM

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Above Average Temperatures Christmas Week

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It is a cold start this morning with temperatures in the teens.  Max temps will rebound into the low to mid 30's which is a few degrees below average for mid to late December.  Temperatures will moderate into the 40's by the holiday weekend.  Although these readings will be above average they will still be a good 20 degrees below 2015 and 15-20 below Christmas 2014.  Snow chances appear minimal through the forecast period.  Unless there is a Christmas week miracle there will be no White Christmas in 2016.
High pressure is in control for the Northeast US through tomorrow.  Our next cold front is just now entering the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures max in the low 30's in Southern Worcester County, Eastern MA, RI an CT.  Temps are closer to 30 or in the upper 20's in Western MA and Northern Worcester County.  Today is the last full day of fall so there will not be much sunlight to work with in the afternoon to maximize the sunshine.  Clouds will also be on the increase t…

Flash Freeze Tonight

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A strong cold front will cross Southern New England this afternoon.  Rain will finish falling late this afternoon just in time for temperatures to crash.  The additional rainfall will just top off all of the precipitation we have seen this weekend.  There will be slush and puddles on the roads tonight that will freeze if left untreated.  Drive with caution tonight.  The National Weather Service has issued a Special Weather Statement to address the potential hazardous conditions.  
Rain will impact the Giants-Lions game in East Rutherford and the Ravens-Eagles game in Baltimore.   What sticks out about this weather?  The temperature drop in NY and Balt after the rain ends immediately sticks out.  The weather in the Midwest also looks wonderful with single digit temperatures.  The weather in Denver is pretty nice for this time of year.  Or maybe how nice the weather in San Diego is this time of the year anytime of the year really.  But the tree take away is the cold behind the front lat…