Monday, December 12, 2016

Pats-Ravens Forecast

Tom Brady leads the Patriots to victory in the 2011 AFC Championship (photo- Justin Lane European Pressphoto Agency)

For the first time since the 2014 AFC Divisional Playoffs (held in January 2015) the hated Baltimore Ravens return to Foxboro to battle the Patriots.  The Patriots won that game and the Super Bowl.  Many people in New England believe Johnny Harbaugh told on the Patriots for "deflating" footballs.  Temperatures tonight will drop into the 20's so the footballs will certainly deflate naturally thanks to the Ideal Gas Law (PV=nRT) but I am thinking the venom spewed from the Pats faithful tonight will be full of hot air.  Below is forecast for the game and some snow statistics from this morning's winter event.

Patriots-Ravens
The match ups are usually close and there is no weather advantage to be found by looking at the games in Foxboro since 2009 (Joe Flacco era)
It will be cold tonight but not as cold as the 2015 game.  I am expecting temperatures around freezing for kick off and dropping into the upper 20's by the end of the game.  Winds will not be a major factor as they blow out of the west at 5-10 MPH.  Crews will be out treating the roads tonight (hopefully before the black ice develops).
NWS Min temps tonight Eastern MA (image Weatherbell)
I like the Patriots 24-21.

Winter Event Wrap-Up
All of the snowfall totals can be found here.  Listed below are the totals for the big 5 SNE cities.

Northbridge ended up with 1-2".  The highest totals were in Northern Worcester County and Western MA.  I am happy with my forecast for this event but I was somewhat surprised Northbridge and Uxbridge held a full day of school.  The roads seemed fine so I have to agree with the call.  With these event Whitinsville is now up to 3" for the season, slightly below average for December 12.
 Short Term Forecast
High temperatures tomorrow will be around 40 with mostly sunny skies and light winds.
NWS max temps Tuesday (image Weatherbell)
Tuesday night a cold front will approach from the west which may touch off a few snow showers.  No accumulation is expected.  The front doesn't bring much in the way of a temperature change so Wednesday looks similar to Tuesday with temperatures just a few ticks cooler.  Big changes are on the way starting Thursday.  Here is the surface fronts and precipitation Wednesday evening.  See that cold front ready to enter the northeast?
WPC Surface fronts/precipitation Wednesday 7 PM
That is the Arctic hound!  Some like to call it the polar vortex which works as well.  Here is what it looks like in the middle of the atmosphere.
12z EURO 500 mb heights Thursday 7 AM (image Weatherbell)
At the surface this means temperatures near 20 for HIGHS on Thursday.
NWS Max temps Thursday (image Weatherbell)
Low temps Thursday night into Friday look to be near 0.  More on this cold to come tomorrow/Wednesday.

Go Pats!

-Zack Green

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