Showing posts from June, 2016

Friday Night Fireworks- Man Made or Mother Nature?

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk for severe storms across Southeastern New England tonight
The threat is greater to our west in the Mid Atlantic.  By 8 PM a squall line should form in Western New England.  Guidance suggests this stays to our north and west through 10 PM.
This line of storms will be capable of strong winds and frequent lightning.  Next update to be posted this afternoon.

Previous discussion below

Most of the holiday weekend looks spectacular in Southern New England.  The only question is tomorrow night.  The Worcester fireworks have been postponed to Saturday already.  Let's take a quick look at this although I will have to update tomorrow as radar trends become clear.

The current surface chart looks like this
By tomorrow evening the cold front will be in upstate New York as high pressure descends into the Midwest.
As of 2 PM some thunderstorms will fire in Eastern NY and Western New England.  Although there is some green on th…

Tuesday June 28, 2016

Slow moving AM rain showers will all but dissipate by 8 AM.  The rest of the day will be mostly cloudy with some breaks of sun.  A cold front will cross the region tonight resulting in overnight showers/thunderstorms.  Southern New England will be in the "warm sector" today which means it will be quite humid this afternoon.

General Overview
Here is the cold front slowly moving towards New England
The cold front will touch off some severe thunderstorms in Eastern PA through upstate NY into VT
Some of these storms may impact Western MA/CT but they will form after 7 PM.  Here is the 7 PM radar snapshot
Temperatures today reach the upper 70's/low 80's
Dew points will rise into the mid 60's.  These conditions stay around tonight which is our best chance for good rain.  Optimistically we could squeeze out over a 0.5" tonight (more to our North and West)
The front slowly clears tomorrow.  A few showers will be possible but overall it will be warmer and nicer than to…

Some Needed Precipitation Tonight

My belief is that most of Tuesday will be dry.  There will be some needed rain overnight but with the lawns as dry as they are people will still need to water this evening and tomorrow.  Let's take a quick look at this.

A cold front sweeping through Ontario and the Great Lakes will cross New England tomorrow.  While the actual passage of the front will be dry an isolated shower is possible.  The biggest threat will be ahead of this line after midnight across all of SNE.  Latest high resolution radar trends bring the thunderstorms into Central MA and the Blackstone Valley around 3-6 AM.
Precipitation totals will be 0.25-0.4 inches max and that is only in the embedded thunderstorms. Most of us see less than 0.1".  Frequent lightning and gusty winds will accompany the downpours so don't be alarmed when you wake up early tomorrow morning.  By 9 AM most of the precipitation will clear the South Coast.
Drought conditions are growing again across the region just as the gypsie m…

Challenging Saturday Forecast

A warm front will lift through Southern New England on Saturday followed by a cold front Saturday night.  At the same time a complex of thunderstorms currently in the Great Lakes may survive the trip across NY/PA and enter Southern New England tomorrow afternoon.  High resolution computer guidance suggests this moves across MA/RI/CT but climatology suggests it stays south.  Let's break it down.

Current Conditions
Here is the current surface chart.  The warm front is in red across MI, PA and VA.  The current severe weather complex is associated with the low pressure across MN and WI
This evening is fine- maybe a bit cool for June 10 but very comfortable.  Meanwhile here is the Great Lakes regional radar
This complex of storm will strengthen and sustain itself overnight.   By noon time guidance suggests it is ready to enter Southern New England.
The surface analysis an hour later shows the warm front ready to advance through New England
I do believe this complex stays alive- but will…

UPDATE- 5 AM Strong Thunderstorms Possible Tuesday

A few showers are moving into Southwest Worcester County as of the 5 AM hour.  A larger batch of showers is tracking through Western MA into Vermont and NH.  It appears these storms continue to trek into Northern New England and dissipate around 10-11 AM.

In its wake skies will clear the atmosphere will destabilize.  The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded Southern New England to a slight risk.
High resolution guidance is favoring action in Eastern MA.  There are some limiting factors that should keep the region out of a widespread severe weather outbreak but any thunderstorms will have the potential for hail and gusty to damaging winds.

Keep an eye on the dew points today.  I will update a new post as needed with severe watches/warnings.

-Zack Green

Previous discussion below

An approaching cold front with strong low pressure in Quebec will approach Southern New England on Tuesday.  Initial showers and thunderstorms will form overnight through tomorrow morning.  If these clear quick…