Friday Night Fireworks- Man Made or Mother Nature?

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk for severe storms across Southeastern New England tonight
SPC Day 1 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
The threat is greater to our west in the Mid Atlantic.  By 8 PM a squall line should form in Western New England.  Guidance suggests this stays to our north and west through 10 PM.
09z HRRR simulated radar 8 PM (image College of Dupage NeXLaB wxcenter)
This line of storms will be capable of strong winds and frequent lightning.  Next update to be posted this afternoon.

Previous discussion below

Most of the holiday weekend looks spectacular in Southern New England.  The only question is tomorrow night.  The Worcester fireworks have been postponed to Saturday already.  Let's take a quick look at this although I will have to update tomorrow as radar trends become clear.

The current surface chart looks like this
WPC surface analysis 5 PM
By tomorrow evening the cold front will be in upstate New York as high pressure descends into the Midwest.
WPC Surface forecast 8 PM Friday
As of 2 PM some thunderstorms will fire in Eastern NY and Western New England.  Although there is some green on this simulated radar image in Central MA it will likely be dry or just a small shower
18z NAM hires simulated radar 2 PM Friday (image Tropical Tidbits)
By 9 PM this model is showing most of the energy west of the Blackstone Valley and Eastern SNE.
18z NAM hires simulated radar 9 PM Friday (Image Tropical Tidbits)
The total precipitation chart as of 11 PM shows no accumulation from Worcester County on east
18z NAM hires accumulated precipitation through 11 PM Friday (image Tropical Tidbits)
Now let me caution that this is just 1 model and it has been known to miss things.  The Canadian regional high resolution model sends a strong line of thunderstorms through the region
18z RGEM mslp/precip 11 PM Friday (image Tropical Tidbits)
I would avoid cancelling any plans as of tonight.  I will keep updating this blog with the latest information as it becomes available.  A lot of storms have fallen apart as they approach Central MA during this dry stretch.  But then there are storms like yesterday morning in which an inch of rain fell in about 45 minutes.  You can't blast fireworks off in that or expect spectators to sit outside as strong winds and dangerous lightning moves through.  I do favor the American model at this time because I think most of the activity will be in Western/Northern New England but I can certainly see how Southern New England gets in on the action.

Cheers- Zack Green


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