Showing posts from October, 2012

Sandy All but Gone, What's Next?

Sandy gave Eastern MA, NH, and ME one more punch last night.  A micro burst was reported in Wareham, MA leaving thousand without power.  Latest updates are that 55 people have died in the United States with an additional 50 + in the Caribbean.  However Sandy is going to be out of our hairs soon.  The only lingering effects will be isolated showers Wednesday and into Thursday.  So lets move past Sandy and into the week ahead.

For a meteorologist it's very boring after all the action last week.

Most areas of New England stay dry with exception being Maine.  Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds high 56.

Best chance for an additional shower tonight.  Low 43.

Mostly Cloudy early, partly cloudy later high 54.

Thursday Night
Fog developing overnight. Low 37

Partly Cloudy. High 54

Friday Night
Cloudy, slight chance of shower (~10 percent) low 39.

Things will cool off this weekend.  Skies will be partly cloudy Saturday with a high of 49.  Saturday night wi…

Sandy Threat not Over for New England

The worst impacts may have spared the majority of New England but all one has to do is turn on the news to see the devastation that occurred in the Tri-State region.  New England dodged a direct hit, but the indirect hit from Sandy was still enough to cause 300,000 + customers to lose power in MA alone.  Reports of almost 1 million New England customers are without power.   Here is a list of wind damage reports from yesterday.  Also the south New England shore was rocked by storm surge.  I haven't heard any updates from CT since last night when a Category 4 evacuation (the highest threat) was issued for coastal residents.  Atlantic City was completely flooded; the boardwalk was washing down the street.
And some from New York City last night
Water in Subways
Fires breaking out, reported 50 homes destroyed in Queens
I find these images staggering.  However there will be more time to reflect on Hurricane Sandy's when she is over.  She is not for New England.  Large bands continue…

High Wind Warning, Flood Watch for New England

There will be no Hurricane or Tropical Storm warning's for the northeast due to Sandy's transition into a Nor'Easter on steroids.  Once again we have to play mental games with a Hurricane because people here its a "weak category 1" and let their guard down.  First of all we don't get Category 1's in the northeast often.  Second of all the pressure in Sandy has dropped to 946 mb, consistent with a Category 3 Hurricane.  Sandy will not have a powerful core of winds around the center like a purely tropical system would.  Instead the wind field is incredibly large and so everyone feels the effects of the storm for over 24 hours.  A lashing like this will strip the trees that aren't knocked down and so our landscape will look like early December. 

Here is a timeline of what to expect, where, and when.

Today- Noon to Midnight
The heaviest winds will occur during this period.  In Southern New England we will get a strong band of winds by noon time lasting t…

Hurricane/Hybrid Sandy Timing and Impacts

If you have been watching The Weather Channel for coverage of Hurricane Sandy, you may have noticed the two different computer models they keep showing.  These two models, the EURO and GFS, are just two of many solutions meteorologists use to forecast the weather.  However the EURO and GFS are two medium range global models and over time have proven to be the best.  The EURO is run by the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast (ECMWF) and is usually the most reliable model.  The GFS is an American model run by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).  Weather models solve the known equations that govern atmospheric physics.  It is for that reason meteorologists study years of calculus and physics in school.  Thank god we developed computer models to solve these equations.
The models use data collected by upper air measures (balloon launches, satellite data, observed data) to input into these equations to start the process.  These measurements are usually taken twic…


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Thursday Morning Sandy Update

Hurricane Sandy rapidly gained strength last and also made a second landfall over Eastern Cuba.  Winds were sustained at 110 MPH and the Barometric Pressure was 957 mb (28.26 in).  So far the forecast is on track.  It will not be until later tonight or tomorrow before the track will lock in.  There is still some divergence from global weather models but they all are capturing the same basic pattern evolution.  The block over the Atlantic will not allow Sandy to escape out to sea without some sort impact in the Northeast. First lets start with the National Hurricane Center forecast and cone of uncertainty.

The environment in front of Sandy is favorable for strengthening, although it may not be reflected in the maximum wind speed.  Instead it is more likely that Sandy spreads its wind field out several hundred miles.  For a densely populated region like the Mid Atlantic and New England this is not a good thing.  The widespread wind field will send an intense storm surge onshore for seve…

Morning Thoughts

After reviewing the overnight computer model data there isn't much to add for Tropical Storm Sandy.  Sandy will become a Hurricane today before striking Jamaica and then Cuba.  The interaction with Cuba will not take as great a toll on Sandy as it has on previous cyclones due to a S-N movement, rather than WNW along the island.  That still leaves us in the Bahama's with a Hurricane tomorrow night.  Very impressed with the energy Sandy has to work with and its slow organization.  Here is Sandy on the water vapor this morning.
All of this energy will interact with a cold front moving east in the day 5-6 range.  Even if Sandy escapes out to sea a Nor'Easter will develop along the coast and would be intense.  I'm not a forecaster that likes to change with every model run, however guidance has slowly trended to a Northeast landfall of Sandy.  The entire Eastern Seaboard will feel the affects of Sandy.  South Florida has just been placed under a Tropical Storm Watch as Sandy…

Tropical Storm Sandy potential New England Impacts

The meteorology world has been buzzing about a potential storm system impacting the northeast next Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.  Most forecasters have tried to hold off issuing any dire announcements or declarations about this system because it is just too early to be sure of any specifics.  However there has been too much consistency from some of our weather models and quite frankly the solutions of several of these models are downright scary.  Rather than alarm anyone I feel tonight is a good time to tell the public what may be coming so we can keep an eye on it.  Here is a breakdown that will be somewhat technical but this will be the first of potentially many blogs on this system.

Tropical Storm Sandy developed yesterday afternoon in the western Caribbean Sea.  Sandy is forecast to strengthen as she heads north over Jamaica, then Cuba, and into the Bahama's.  Here is the National Hurricane Center forecast track
Hurricane Warnings for Jamaica, Cuba  Up until Friday a…