Memorial Day Weekend Outlook

I apologize for the lack of posts in recent days.  I've been working on several projects that require a higher priority than the routine mid to late spring weather pattern.  Memorial Day weekend is a landmark for most Americans.  First and foremost we pause to remember those who died fighting for our right to live freely.  It's also the unofficial start to the summer season and many Americans party in honor of the long weekend.  Many of these parties are outdoors which require a decent weather forecast.  There may be a chance of showers but should you make alternative plans?

Short Term Forecast
Low pressure tracking northeast and a front south of New England have brought more rain to the region.  So far this month 3-6" has fallen across most of SNE.
Month to Date Rainfall thru 8 AM 5/25/17 (image Weatherbell)
At the surface, the low is slowly tracking northeast.  The center is shown here near Washington, DC.
WPC Surface Analysis 11 AM 
There is a strong air mass contrast south of the warm front and north of it.  This allowed for the rain shield to blossom well ahead of the actual storm center which has occluded back in Ohio. At the same time, the low in the Mid-Atlantic is gaining strength.  As a result, some stronger thunderstorms are shown on the radar in VA and NC but the main rain shield is in Upstate New York, Canada, and the Ohio Valley.
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 
The radar may appear to be breaking up across SNE but as the low deepens and moves northeast the rain shield will fill back in.  Showers, fog, and drizzle will continue through this evening.  Steady rain will return around 11 PM from South to North.  Temperatures this afternoon will remain in the low 50's but as the warm front gets closer this evening the South Coast, Cape and Islands will climb into the 60's.  Here is the 18-hour simulated radar ending at 7 AM tomorrow.
17z HRRR 18-hour Simulated Radar (image Weatherbell)
At 8 AM the center of the storm will be near Boston Harbor.  1-2+" of rain is likely as this moves through.  Some of the stronger rain bands will contain thunder and lightning so don't be surprised if you wake up in the early AM hours.

WPC Surface Analysis Friday 8 AM 
Rain will linger through the Friday AM hours.  While no one will confuse tomorrow afternoon with a nice day, the sun will try and peak out and the late May sunshine will help kick temperatures into low 60's.  A few spot showers will be possible thanks to cold air aloft.  The closer to the coast one is the less of a chance they have to see peaks of sun before she sets for the evening.  The low will take its time meandering east so the clouds, fog, and drizzle will also be slow to leave.  Clearing skies Friday night will allow for temperatures to drop into the upper 40's/low 50's in SNE and low to mid 40's in Northern New England (NNE).
NWS Minimum Temperatures Saturday AM (image Weatherbell)
Winds will shift to the WNW on Saturday.  Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 70's in Western MA and CT while everyone else gets into the upper 60's.  A sea breeze after 3 PM will add a chill to the air in Eastern MA, RI, South Coast, and the Cape and Islands.  Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds.
NWS Max Temperatures Saturday (image Weatherbell)
NWS Max Temperatures Saturday (image Weatherbell)
Sunday will be similar to Saturday.  Could there be a spot shower in the mountain regions of Western and Northern New England?  It is possible but again there will be widespread upper 60's and low 70's.  Sunday may end up being a tad cooler than Saturday thanks to mostly cloudy skies.
NWS Max Temperatures Sunday (image Weatherbell)
NWS Max Temperatures Sunday (image Weatherbell)
It would be nice if communities could move any Monday AM parades to Sunday because some rain is likely for the holiday.  Low pressure moving south and east of New England will interact with upper-level energy to our northwest.

Here is forecast surface chart Monday 8 AM.
WPC Surface Forecast Monday 8 AM
That is a lot of action around the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  Odds are many communities will see at least some rainfall.   Temperatures will be in the low to mid 60's.  This bears watching because the low is forecast to be weak and the interaction needs to take place at the right place and time for any steady rain to fall.  Given the weather pattern, I wouldn't bet against it.  Prepare to alter outdoor plans on Monday, but I would advise against canceling anything yet.
NWS Max Temps Monday (image Weatherbell)
Have a great weekend.

-Zack Green


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