Cloudy, But Mostly Dry Next Few Days

High pressure will protect Southern New England from rain showers today even as skies remain mostly gray and temperatures stay 10 degrees below normal.  The optimist would say 10 degrees below normal is still 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.  Landscapers, golfers, and other outdoor industries will take the break from precipitation because more is in the forecast later this week.

General Overview
An upper-level low is spinning north of the Great Lakes, while an upper-level ridge sits in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean.  Temperatures spiked into the mid to upper 90's in South Florida this weekend, setting the record for warmest May temperature on record.
00z ECMWF 500 mb anomaly Tuesday 8 AM (image Weatherbell)
There are two weak frontal boundaries present across the Eastern US.  One is at the leading edge of the ULL (upper-level low) and the other separates the ULR (upper-level ridge) from the ULL.
WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Tuesday 8 AM
As of 630 AM rain was falling in Western NY and PA.  Weak high-pressure offshore of New England will protect the region from precipitation during the daylight hours.  Winds will shift to an SW/S orientation this afternoon.  Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60's with most places reaching these levels during the late afternoon.
NWS Maximum Temperatures Tuesday (image Weatherbell)
Tonight-Wednesday
As the front slowly moves east some showers will get into Western New England tonight.  They will get into Central and Northeast MA after midnight.
06z NAM hires Simulated Radar Wednesday 2 AM (image Weatherbell)
The showers will fall apart by the morning.  Low pressure passing south of the region will bring some heavy rain close to the Cape, Islands, and South Coast.  Skies will be mostly cloudy tomorrow but temperatures will reach the low 70's.
NWS Maximum Temperatures Wednesday (image Weatherbell)
The cold front will still be to our west tomorrow afternoon.  Most of the afternoon and early evening is dry.  Here is the projected surface chart at 8 PM.
WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Wednesday 8 PM 
Western New England will have to be on the lookout for strong to severe thunderstorms between 8 PM-10 PM tomorrow evening.  The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting a "marginal" chance of severe weather.
SPC Severe Storms Outlook Wednesday
The simulated radar shows a healthy line of thunderstorms near Springfield by 9 PM tomorrow.
06z NAM hires Simulated Radar Wednesday 9 PM (image Weatherbell)
It looks menacing but this will fall apart rapidly as it reaches the marine layer in Central/Eastern SNE.   By 11 PM not much is left of the line.
06z NAM hires Simulated Radar Wednesday 11 PM (image Weatherbell)
Extended Outlook
Seasonable weather returns on Thursday with temperatures in the low to mid 70's.  Thursday looks to be the pick of the week as partly cloudy skies will make for a spectacular first day of June.   Winds will be gusting out of the west 25-30 MPH.   Showers return to the forecast on Friday but temperatures should stay in the mid 70's.  The weekend looks unsettled, but Saturday night looks mostly dry.  Sunday may be a washout for those having graduation parties.

-Zack Green

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