The weather this week would not be out of place in late October or early November. The coastal storm this weekend will be no exception. A strong, late-season nor'easter will pass southeast of New England Saturday night. The storm will drop 1-2" of rain with 35-45 MPH wind gusts. If this storm hit in February you would probably have to mute me because the atmospheric configuration of this storm is similar to a mid-winter blockbuster. Alas, it is May 12 so we will have to deal with a soaking cold rain and the switch to 70's and 80's that will happen next week. Of course, 40 years ago this week a funny thing happened.
The NWS folks said it best; it could be worse. Over 500k lost power in Central and Eastern MA from the heavy, wet snow.
General Set-Up
Several pieces of energy moving through the Southeast will consolidate near the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday AM to form the storm. Here is where these features will be around 2 PM this afternoon.
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| WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Friday 2 PM |
On satellite, we see a well-defined upper-level circulation in Oklahoma and Arkansas and a more general circulation in Ontario, Canada. The southern low will eventually be absorbed into the Canadian low when their influence on one another becomes apparent tomorrow.
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| NOAA GOES_East Water Vapor Satellite 1015 AM |
What is evident on the water vapor loop is the available moisture in the Gulf of Mexico and Southwest Atlantic Ocean. Also evident is low clouds which are returning right now. This system is posting a small severe weather risk in the Southeast today, but the threat will be absent in the northeast tomorrow. A big part of that is the track of the storm and the fact that there is no warmth in SNE. Max temperatures today will be in the upper 50's in RI /E/CMass and low 60's in WMass.
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| NWS Maximum Temperatures Friday (image Weatherbell) |
Friday Night-Sunday AM Outlook
Temperatures tonight will fall into the low to mid 40's as cloud cover continues to thicken overnight. Winds will begin to increase out of the east. A few light sprinkles or showers will be possible after daybreak but the steady rain begins mid to late morning in Springfield and Hartford. Rain begins in Worcester around 1 PM and Boston around 2-3 PM.
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| 12z NAM hires simulated radar Saturday 12, 2, 4 PM (image Weatherbell) |
Temperatures will max in the low 50's early Saturday PM. The winds gusting 25-35 MPH out of the east will make it feel much colder than that.
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| NWS Max Temperatures Saturday (image Weatherbell) |
By Saturday evening the low will be just off the Delaware coastline and it will be getting stronger.
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| WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Saturday 8 PM |
It will be around 8 PM tomorrow night when the truly heavy rain will fall. 1.5-2" of rain are likely Saturday night alone into Sunday AM. The heaviest rain should push offshore around 4-5 AM.
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| 12z NAM hires simulated radar Saturday 8, 10 PM Sunday 12, 2, 4 AM (image Weatherbell) |
Although the steady rain is gone by the time you step out for church or brunch with Mom there will be some large puddles and maybe some left over street flooding. Lighter showers will be around throughout the morning as well. Winds will peak overnight at 30-45 MPH.
Sunday PM-Monday AM
There is some hope for late day sunshine and 60s in RI and CT but temperatures will likely remain in the upper 40's and low 50's in Massachusetts Sunday afternoon. The air south of the MA Pike will destabilize on Sunday afternoon and another round of showers and possible thunder will occur after 3-4 PM.
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| NWS Maximum Temperatures Sunday (image Weatherbell) |
Showers continue Sunday night, with temperatures in the 40's. We finally rebound back into the 60's on Monday but still with a risk of showers. Finally, on Tuesday and Wednesday, we will return to the 70's and possibly higher by the end of the week. Here is the total rain through Sunday evening.
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| NWS Precipitation Forecast through Sunday 8 PM (image Weatherbell) |
A healthy 1-2"+. Have a nice Friday.
-Zack Green
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