Rumbles or Rumors? Storms For Some Later

Some residents of Southern New England will have to keep eyes and ears to the sky today as thunderstorms are forecast to roll through Western and Northern communities this afternoon and evening.  Some folks may even have to dodge a stray afternoon shower but the main action will be after 3 PM.   Temperatures will climb into the low 70's for most, although a few of the higher elevations may top out in the upper 60's.

General Outlook
Some rain showers are present in the Hudson River Valley and off the South Coast.  Dense fog developed this morning in Southern Worcester County, RI, and SE MA.  Visibilities are improving and the dense fog advisory will expire at 10 AM.   The sun is out in upstate New York and PA and this is moving east towards New England.
NOAA GOES_East Visible Satellite Loop through 815 AM
You may be able to see the spin in the clouds north of the Great Lakes.   Trailing from the center of this storm is a cold front that will serve as a trigger for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across the Northeast.
WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Wednesday 2 PM
The low south of the Islands is responsible for the showers across S CT, RI, and MA this AM.  That boundary also separates the true summer-like air from the more seasonable 70's we will see today.  Temperatures will be in the low to mid 80's around DC.  The Hudson and Connecticut River Valley's will be the warmest spots in our local region today.
NWS Max Temperatures Wednesday (image Weatherbell)
NW CT, W MA, S VT, and SW NH will have to watch the radar's beginning around 3 PM.

Wednesday PM
Here is the 18-hour simulated radar beginning at 8 AM and ending at 2 AM Thursday.
12z HRRR 18-hr Simulated Radar ending Thur 2 AM (image Weatherbell)
This model is advertising storms for some, but not all.  South of the MA Pike, little to no rain is possible as the dreaded marine layer will erode the storms as they move east this evening.  The marine layer is the thunderstorm slayer in the Blackstone Valley and SE MA.  That said, the storms will really ramp up in the western and northern zones, especially after 6 PM.


Some communities will see over a half inch of rain while others will see almost nothing.  A brief tornado is possible in Berkshire, Franklin, and parts of CT, VT, and NH in any supercell that develops.  Hail and damaging will be a more widespread hazard.  If any storm survives the journey to the Blackstone Valley wind would be the primary hazard besides lightning.

Thursday
The front will move offshore tomorrow AM.
WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Thursday 8 AM
Thursday is the pick of the week.  Temperatures will be in the mid 70's as we welcome June and meteorological summer.
NWS Max Temperatures Thursday (image Weatherbell)
Winds will gust out of the west 10-15 mph.   Cold air aloft will generate a few isolated showers tomorrow afternoon.  Showers are possible on Friday and Saturday but neither day is forecast to be a washout. I am tracking a coastal storm for later Sunday PM into Monday AM.

If the atmosphere gets excited this afternoon I'll post a live blog with updated Severe Watches/Warnings.

-Zack Green

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