Wednesday, May 3, 2017

Big Rainmaker Friday

A large storm system is crossing the US this morning.  This system will arrive in our backyard late Friday morning and it will bring with it heavy rain and some wind.  Until that arrives we will see below average temperatures today and tonight before a return to more seasonable temperatures on Thursday.  The storm will arrive Friday morning and it will depart early Saturday morning.

Short Range Forecast
Cold high pressure centered in Southern Canada is driving a secondary cold front across Southern New England today.  As this disturbance moves through, upper atmospheric temperatures will crash.  This will allow for the development of clouds and showers.  
WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Wednesday 2 PM
The showers will be isolated, but possible none-the-less.  Max temperatures will be between 55-60 for most.  We average 63-66 for this time of year so this is a cool air mass.  Winds will be out of the west. Sustained winds will be light, 5-10 MPH but wind gusts will approach 30 MPH.
NWS Maximum Temperatures Today (image Weatherbell)
The cold air behind the front will help to drop temperatures into the 30's tonight.  Cloud cover is expected to be minimal which will allow for temperatures to bottom out.  
NWS Minimum Temperatures Thursday AM (image Weatherbell)
This has prompted Frost Advisories to be issued for some parts of Western MA and Northern CT.  The Blackstone Valley is not included in this but looking ahead it sure seems some more cold nights are possible over the next week.
NWS Wednesday AM Headlines
Temperatures will climb back into the mid to upper 60's on Thursday.  Winds will be light but clouds will increase as the storm system moves closer to the region.  
NWS Maximum Temperatures Thursday (image Weatherbell)
Thursday Night-Saturday Morning
By Thursday night the storm will be lifting northward into the Ohio Valley.  There is a lesser severe weather threat from this system when compared to the killer that moved across the country this weekend.  
WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Thursday 8 PM
Temperatures on Friday will remain in the 50's across the interior and into the 60's in the coastal plain.
NWS Maximum Temperatures Friday (image Weatherbell)
Showers commence after daybreak but the heaviest rain will arrive around lunchtime.  Rain will fall heavily between 2 PM and 2 AM when 1-2" will fall across Southern New England.   Here is the forecast rainfall up until 8 PM Friday.
NWS Precipitation Forecast Through Friday 8 PM (image Weatherbell)
Another 0.25-0.5" will fall by Saturday AM.  The precipitation will end Saturday AM but raw, windy weather will remain for golf, baseball, soccer, lacrosse, and whatever else you may have to do on the weekend.   A chance of showers will remain all weekend as the storm will "cut off" from the regular atmospheric flow that transports weather systems (the jet stream).  This will not be a widespread wind event, but some strong gusts are possible with the system.

Tomorrow I will time this system out for the entire weekend.

-Zack Green


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