Summer Like Heat Means Summer Like Storms?

Short range, high-resolution computer guidance is suggesting the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms this evening across Southern New England.  A lot of ingredients for nocturnal thunderstorms will be present across the region from early this evening through midnight.  The atmosphere will be unstable thanks to blistering mid-summer heat that has taken hold over the past 2 days.
`1 PM Temperatures (image Weatherbell)
A sea breeze is protecting communities along Narragansett Bay and on Cape Cod.  Temperatures will continue to rise, even as a few clouds develop in Southeastern New England.  These should burn off by late afternoon.  To our west lies a cold front.
WPC Surface Analysis 11 AM
The current Northeast regional radar does not look all that impressive.  Some convection is firing in Western New York, but nothing significant at the moment.
NWS Northeast Regional Radar Loop ends 228 PM
The simulated radar loop, however, looks very impressive as we move forward this afternoon/evening.
17z HRRR Simulated Radar thru Friday 7 AM (image Weatherbell)
This afternoon and early this evening will be dry, just hot.  Thunderstorms are expected to enter Western New England after 8 PM.  The worst of the weather in Worcester County will be after 10 PM and before midnight.  A weakened version of the storms will exit Eastern Massachusetts around 2 AM.

In these thunderstorms, we can expect heavy rain, lightning, and strong to damaging winds.  It's a bit early in the season for nocturnal thunderstorms, but it is also early in the season for mid to upper 90's.  Shut the car windows this evening before turning in!  I'll live update this blog as needed this evening.

-Zack Green


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