Showing posts from February, 2017

Lion Like Start to March

3/1/17 640 AM Update-  Multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms for SNE today.  The next batch arrives around lunch time. 
Another batch looks to follow late afternoon, especially in CT, RI and SE MA.  A third and final batch is likely tonight around 11 PM.  Of more immediate concern is fog in SE MA/RI and a wind threat.  The NWS has issued a *Wind Advisory* region wide and a *Dense Fog Advisory* for said areas.
Winds will gust 40-50 MPH AFTER the cold front passes overnight.  Thursday will be very windy across SNE.  Temperatures are still forecast to rise into the mid 60's today, which puts us in striking distance of the record highs for the date.
More later.

Previous Discussion Below (Tuesday 530 PM Post)

In 1732, a proverb appeared in Thomas Fuller's book Gnomologia: Adagies and Proverbs; Wise Sentences and Witty Sayings, Ancient and Modern that reads "Comes in like a Lion, goes out like a Lamb".  Some smarty used this saying to describe the weather in March in mi…

Brief Cool Down Concludes Monday AM

After multiple days of record breaking weather, temperatures have briefly returned to seasonably average levels.  This will not last long as a storm system will pass to our west midweek.  Combining with high pressure in the Western Atlantic, a moisture-rich air mass will stream into Southern New England.  Severe weather will once again be possible in the Northeast on Wednesday when a cold front pushes towards the coast.  The greatest threat for storms will be to our west and south.  The mere threat of thunderstorms means temperatures will once again rise into the 60's/70's.

General Overview/Short Term Forecast
PM temperatures in SNE are expected to rise into the low to mid 50's.  Winds will be from the southwest this afternoon with gusts as high as 25-30 MPH possible.  Despite abundant sun this PM, this will take some of the shine out of the nice temps.
There are no precipitation chances this afternoon or this evening.  High pressure is slowly sliding to the east into the A…

February 25 is a Big Severe Weather Day in Southern New England

Update 6:52 PM The NWS has just confirmed that an EF-1 tornado did touch down in Conway, MA last night.  This is the first recorded tornado in state history during the month of February.  WOW!  Max wind is estimated at 110 MPH.

Like any good spring warm up, the Northeast was cooled off by severe thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and evening.  As is often the case in the early part of the year the storms fell apart long before they got to Eastern MA and N RI.  The difference yesterday is that the calendar still reads February and the National Weather Service is sending out storm survey teams to determine what caused this kind of damage in Conway, MA.  Conway is up in Franklin County near Greenfield, a little west of 91 and south of Rt 2.
 I don't conduct storm survey's but that looks like a microburst to me.  There is significant structural damage to some homes but it is confined to a small area.  The severe reports in the northeast are impressive.
Believe it or not, this isn…

All Time Warmest February Day in 145 Years (Boston)

Standing ovation for this weather pattern.  It has delivered one of the warmest (the warmest? project time!)  stretches in 145 years of record keeping.  Worcester is at 66 as of 1 PM, just one degree off.  The HRRR last night nailed this.
Here is where we stand in regards to warmest Feb days.
I'd like to think we can break tomorrow's records as well before late afternoon/early evening rain overspreads the region.   If minimum temperatures don't get below 50 tonight we will tie or break the warmest minimum temperatures in February.

-Zack Green

A Record Setting Day in Southern New England

Boston, Providence, and Worcester each set a new maximum temperature record for the date.  The record run continues through Saturday as several more records may fall.  A boundary across Southern New England will be the focus for some showers/downpours in the pre-dawn/early morning hours.

Short Term Forecast
Clouds will increase tonight as a boundary to our north sags south.  It will lift back north between 3-7 AM.  This is when some rain showers will be possible.  Here is the current northeast surface analysis.
  Temperatures are well above average to the east of the cold front and south of the warm front.   Records were set throughout the northeast today, including the all-time February record in Burlington, VT.
Here are the simulated radar runs from 4-7 AM tomorrow AM.  Given the warmth, I wouldn't be shocked if someone hears a rumble of thunder or two with these.
This is thanks to this boundary lingering in our air space.
A fog bank will envelop the South Coast tomorrow morning…

Near Record Warmth Possible Thursday

A sequence of storm systems moving through the Great Lakes will escort rounds of seasonably warm temperatures into the Northeast.  Temperatures Wednesday-Saturday will rise well above normal.  This round of above average temperatures comes to a close this weekend when a strong cold front brings heavy rain to the region.

General Overview/Short Term Forecast
The warmth is centered in the Plains and Midwest today.  Record highs are forecast to be tied or broken in Chicago, Milwaukee, Green Bay, Minneapolis, Denver, and Omaha, to name a few.
Look at the huge difference the snowpack makes.  Temperatures are in the mid 70's in South Dakota while just over the border in North Dakota temps remain in the 30's and 40's,
Meanwhile in the Northeast high pressure remains in control.  An advancing warm front will bring some showers tonight and the leading edge of the mild air.  Temperatures today will rise into the mid 40's further helping to reduce the snowpack in Southern New Engla…