|9z HRRR Simulated Radar Wednesday 12 PM (Image Weatherbell)|
|NWS Wednesday AM Headlines|
Previous Discussion Below (Tuesday 530 PM Post)
In 1732, a proverb appeared in Thomas Fuller's book Gnomologia: Adagies and Proverbs; Wise Sentences and Witty Sayings, Ancient and Modern that reads "Comes in like a Lion, goes out like a Lamb". Some smarty used this saying to describe the weather in March in mid-latitude climates. The "roar" is that of the Arctic wind and the snow hounds that are often present in early March. In New England we know that early spring is really just an extension of late winter. The 3rd ranked storm on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) is a crippling snowstorm from March 3-5, 1960 that dropped 20-30" of snow in Eastern MA.
(h/t Sadie Stein, The Paris Review)
|March 2-5, 1960 snow accumulation (NESIS)|
|March 12-14, 1993 snow accumulation (NESIS)|
|March 31-April 1, 1997 storm accumulation (NESIS)|
Short Term Forecast
There are a few showers entering Western MA/CT as of 5 PM. These showers will remain fairly weak through early evening as they track to the ENE.
|NWS Northeast Regional Radar Loop|
|20z HRRR sim radar Wed 2 AM (image Weatherbell)|
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible tomorrow, but forecasting severe thunderstorms for March 1 in Southern New England is something NO ONE is good at. The majority of communities may not hear a single rumble or thunder or see a bolt of lightning. There are signs that the one or two ingredients for severe weather may be missing. That said of the ingredients needed are off the charts. As a result most of Southern New England is under a "Marginal" or "Slight" severe risk.
|SPC Wednesday Severe Thunderstorm Outlook|
|NWS Max Temps Wednesday. Potential record high temps circled (image Weatherbell)|
Repeat- odds of seeing a thunderstorm tomorrow are low, but if you do see one damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. Hell it happened on Saturday. It also happened on March 1, 1966 in Berkshire County, although reports are hard to find.
I'll update in the morning.