Recapping Winter Storm Orson

For the second time in four days, a storm system dropped plowable snow in Southern New England.  The first storm produced more snow and was quite frankly more impressive from a physical science perspective at its closest approach to SNE.  I expected more out of the snow yesterday.  I originally forecasted 10-14" for much of MA and 14-20" for the Merrimack Valley and points north.  

Total Observed Snow through 830 AM via NWS Boston

I did not expect the blotchy nature of the radar yesterday afternoon.  I also thought there would be more snow in the predawn hours.  There were signals in the guidance that low snow totals were possible, if not likely.  

Link to 24 hour MA radar loop via WOWeather

I used a similar method to derive snow totals as I have all winter but it wasn't good enough yesterday and I will be better in the future.  Props to NECN and Fox 25 for keeping their snow totals low.  My sincere apologies to those who use my weather information to make decisions, this was not my best work.

NOAA/NWS/NCEP GOES_East Rainbow IR Satellite 645 AM

Here is the surface chart as of 7 AM.  The central pressure of the system is down to 977 mb.  We have an official meteorological bomb with a greater than 24 mb pressure drop in the last 24 hours.

WPC Surface Analysis Monday 7 AM

There is some light snow in Eastern MA but the substantial snow is in Maine.

NWS Northeast Regional Radar Loop through 818 AM

Temperatures are in the upper 20's right now and will max out in the upper 20's/low 30's depending on location.  

NWS Maximum Temps Monday (image Weatherbell)

If you have stepped outside it feels much colder than the upper 20's and that is thanks to the wind.  Wind chills should be in the teens most of the day before dropping to the low teens overnight.  The winds are strong enough to prompt headlines from the National Weather Service.  A *High Wind Warning* is in effect for Eastern MA/RI until 7 PM for frequent gusts near 55 MPH.  Thanks to the heavy wet snow on trees and powerlines these NW winds pose a greater danger than normal for power outages.  A *Wind Advisory* is posted for Central and Western MA and CT for the wind gusts 40-50 mph.  This is also until 7 PM.

NWS AM Headlines

More sun than clouds today as the low sits and spins to our east.  High pressure will build from the west.  By 7 PM here is what the surface chart should look like.  Please note the low in the top center of the image and the mess in the Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma region.  

WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Monday 7 PM

There was a chance these two features would come together off the east coast on Wednesday and create another major winter storm.  It now appears this will come together too late to impact the east coast with a major storm.    The northern system will bring some wintry precipitation to New England on Wednesday.  Before we get to that temperatures tonight are in the low to mid teens.  

NWS Min temps overnight Monday to Tuesday AM (image Weatherbell)

The weather Tuesday will be seasonable (perhaps a few ticks below average) with temps in the low to mid 30's and light NW winds.  Temps on Wednesday start in the 20's but quickly surge into the low 40's.  Snow may break out for the morning rush but this will quickly lift north.  In fact, most of the snow will be in Northern New England.  So rain/snow mix is likely in the interior and just plain rain at the coast.

-Zack Green