Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Tuesday

Tuesday morning forecast here.  Try out riverhawkweather.wordpress.com currently have forecasts up for most of the country

Monday, July 8, 2013

Introducing Riverhawk Weather

Several classmates and I have teamed up to start a new forecasting webpage.  It is called Riverhawk Weather.  The majority of my posts will be over there now but I will still link them here for the time being.  I'd be happy if you joined us! We have a facebook group (Riverhawk Weather) and a twitter (@riverhawkwx).  Here is this mornings forecast.

the url is riverhawkweather.wordpress.com

have a good monday

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Heat Wave to Begin Today

Another heat wave will begin today for several across Southern New England.  If you do not join the 90 degree club today do not worry; you will tomorrow, Friday, and Saturday.  With all these heat and humidity one would expect thunderstorms.  However there will be no real trigger to fire thunderstorms in Southern New England.  Up in Northern New England, specifically the Lakes Region, could certainly see thunderstorms today or tomorrow.   Yesterday a sneaky back door cold front screwed up the forecast for NE MA, S NH, and S ME.  As my forecasting professor said in college there may not be a weather event more difficult to forecast than a New England BDCF.

Short Range Forecast/Observations
As I like to lets start with temperatures this morning.  Can you see the Back Door Cold Front?
5 am 2 m temps (image weatherbell)
Dew Points are generally running above 60, although that is not the case in Essex County, SE NH, and Southern ME.
5 am 2 m dew points (NCEP)
Here is the surface analysis from 2 am.  The boundary has lifted somewhat to the Northeast since this map was created
WPC surface analysis 2 am
This boundary should continue to lift north throughout the day.  Here is the radar this morning
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 618 am
These showers are generally moving NNE in a direction similar to the front.  Western MA/CT may get clipped as these showers move into Northern New England.  There is still plenty of moisture to work with.  Here is the water vapor satellite image
GOES_East Water Vapor Satellite 545 am
There is a deep trough in the central US and a strong ridge over the Western Atlantic.  There has been record warmth in the Western US, and record cold in the Central US.  Our record high temps for early July are safe in New England as they were set in the epic Heat Wave of July 1911 that killed hundreds in the Northeast.
00z EURO 500 mb heights 8 PM (image weatherbell)
Today
High temperatures will rise to the low 90's near Boston, Providence, Hartford, and Springfield.  Most are near 90 with the exception of the Cape and Islands, Northern Worcester County, the Berkshires, and NW CT.  With southerly flow around the high pressure in the Atlantic there will be a sea breeze on the CT/RI beaches and Cape/Is.
06z NAM hires 2 m temp 3 PM (image weatherbell)
There is only a slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm today
WPC Day 1 Precipitation Outlook
tonight lows will only drop to around 70. 

Fourth of July
Temperatures will be climbing rapidly tomorrow morning.  It will already be in the mid 80's by 10 am.  Here is the surface chart
WPC surface forecast 8 am Thur
The Southeast may see some rouge tropical storm developing tomorrow. However for us just Hazy, Hot, and Humid
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 PM Thur (image weatherbell)
Again just a slight chance of a shower/storm
WPC Day 2 Precipitation Outlook
Friday
Lower to mid 90's
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 pm Fri (image weatherbell)
Friday should be mainly dry
WPC Day 3 Precipitation Outlook
Saturday-Sunday
Warm, temperatures 88-96.  Will fine tune this forecast as there could be thunderstorms Sunday.  I think Saturday is another prime summer day.  Have a Great 4th everyone!

















Tuesday, July 2, 2013

More Rounds of Rain/Thunder Possible

Although some more rain and thunder will work its way up the coast the threat for Southern New England appears much less than yesterday.  A tornado has been confirmed in Windsor, CT making it the second confirmed tornado in Southern New England in 2013.  It is warm this morning
2 m temps 4 am (image weatherbell)
Dew Points again remain in the upper 60's/low 70's
2 m dew points 5 am (image NCEP)
Our connection with the tropics remains.  Here is the water vapor satellite.  One thing I notice is that the boundary is back further to the west today as the trough in the Midwest has retrograded somewhat.  The tropical plume seems less active today than yesterday although it is early
GOES_East Water Vapor Satellite Image 515 am (NOAA)
The radar has action in Northern New England, the Mid Atlantic, and off the Carolina/VA coasts
NWS Boston Northeast Regional Radar 558 am
Any downpours that do develop will have plenty of moisture to work with.  PWATS are running around 2 inches for Southern New England! That is the ultimate proof of a tropical air mass.  
SPC Mesoanalysis 09z Precipitable Water
Around 2 PM the bulk of the moisture will be closer to the stalled frontal boundary.  It will continue to back towards the Central US.
WPC 2 PM Surface Forecast
Temperatures this afternoon will climb into low 80's
06z NAM hires 2 m temp 2 PM (image weatherbell)
When these tropical downpours develop they do not cool off the atmosphere.  One storm forms, rains itself out and it goes back to 75-80 with a dew point of 68-72.  At the 500 mb level here is how the pattern will evolve.  Tonight at 8 PM a strong ridge in the Western Atlantic is readying itself to send waves of summer back into the Northeast (Heat Wave end of week? More this afternoon on that) while our trough continues to back west.
00z EURO 500 mb height anomaly 8 PM (image weatherbell)
By tomorrow evening the pattern is expected to look like
00z EURO 500 mb height anomaly 8 PM Wed (image weatherbell)
While there will still be some afternoon thunder to watch tomorrow the main triggers will be in the Ohio Valley.  All in all it will be a warm and muggy afternoon.  Some spots will approach 90
06z NAM hires 2 m temp 2 pm Wed (image weatherbell)
On Thursday that boundary will more or less fall apart to our west.
WPC surface forecast 8 am Thursday
Temperatures will be HOT.  It will be humid.  Isolated afternoon thunderstorms but most stay dry.  Keep an eye to the sky that is all
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 PM Thur (image weatherbell)
Besides Worcester and the Berkshires (and Cape and Islands) everyone should get to 90 on Thursday.  More on the weekend this afternoon have a good one.












Monday, July 1, 2013

Severe Weather Threat

It has turned out to be quite an active severe weather day in New England.  Reports of damage are filtering in every single minute.  Soon damage reports from Middlesex and Essex counties will trickle in as multiple cells have been tornado warned.  
NWS Boston radar 406 PM
The tornado warnings in NE MA last until 430.  We are not looking at big, long tracked tornadoes; as NECN's Danielle Niles pointed out these tropically infused thunderstorms typical produce smaller, short lived tornadoes.  No matter as they still cause significant damage if they hit your house.  The other threat is the slow moving nature of these storms and the amount of moisture available.  A Flash Flood watch remains in effect for the majority of the region.  Some warnings are also present.  Find info here.
NWS Boston Hazards
The sun is popping out in Eastern MA as it has been doing all afternoon in Southern Worcester County and Northern Rhode Island.
GOES_East Visible Satellite Image 402 PM (NOAA)
Here is the water vapor loop for the Eastern US.  Our moisture source is the Caribbean Sea and Central America
GOES_East Water Vapor Satellite Image 345 PM (NOAA)
Be smart, don't try to drive through flooded roadways.  No need to panic, just be alert of what could happen.




A Few More Days of Warm/Muggy

June 2013 is over and into the record books as one of the wettest on record.  It seemed like it there was a threat for rain every single day.
NWS Top 10 June Rainfall Totals
The pattern is slowly changing.  An upper level low/500 mb trough has been present in the Ohio Valley/  This is flanked by ridges in the SW US, contributing to record warmth, as well as a strong Bermuda High.  Here is the 500 mb pattern
06z NAM 500 mb heights/vorticity 8 am (NCEP)
Currently temperatures are running between 68-72 across SNE
2 m temps 5 am (image NCEP)
Dew points are very similar
2 m dew points 5 am (NCEP)
Here is the radar
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 548 am
The rainfall is generally moving northward.  The best transport is over the Cape
09z SPC mesoanalysis 850mb moisture transport
There is also a stationary boundary running through Central NY state, PA, and down to the Gulf of Mexico
WPC surface analysis 2 am
This is where all this tropical moisture is coming from.  Flash Flood Watches are up for portions of SNE
NWS Boston headlines/hazards
It appears that the heaviest rains will be located along the stationary boundary.  However even if you are not in the Flash Flood Watch any shower that develops will have the potential to drop an inch of rain in a brief period of time.  
WPC Day 1 Precipitation Outlook
The threat is severe weather is minimal; however dangerous lightning will accompany any thunderstorm that is able to develop.  Damaging winds are possible as well.
SPC Day 1 Thunderstorm Outlook
Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the mid to upper 70's
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 3 PM (image weatherbell)
The Cape is already seeing rain; the first batch of showers gets to Hartford by 730-8, Providence 830, Worcester and Metrowest around 9.  These may cause problems for the morning commute.  Also looking like a second wave develops early this afternoon.  We are simply tapping tropical moisture.  That will help keep temperatures up tonight.  It will not drop below 67-68 in a lot of places tonight.  Tomorrow we can expect more scattered/isolated thunderstorms and downpours
WPC Day 2 Precipitation Outlook
The thunderstorm threat is similar; heavy rain and dangerous lightning but low chance of severe wind, hail, and tornadoes.  
SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook
The NAM hires is indicating a heavy stream of showers/embedded thunder tomorrow morning around 7 am so heads up with the morning commute.
06z NAM hires simulated radar 7 am Tues (image weatherbell)
Temperatures will rise to the upper 70's/low 80's
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 pm Tues (image weatherbell)
North and West of Boston may approach the mid to upper 80's, specifically the Merrimack River Valley.  The pattern begins to shift on Wednesday but the threat for showers and storms will continue.  Its going to be warm on Wednesday and it has great beach potential.  Be prepared for late afternoon thunderstorms all throughout New England.
06z NAM hires 2 m temps Wed 2 PM (image weatherbell)
SPC does not have a risk of severe storms yet but I think this will upgrade by Wednesday morning.  
SPC Day 3 Thunderstorm Outlook
A stationary boundary will be present in Southern Canada
WPC Surface Forecast Wed 8 am
Fourth of July Forecast
High pressure in the Western Atlantic continues to be in control
WPC Surface Forecast Thursday 8 am
The main focus for showers and thunderstorms looks to be out by the boundary in the Ohio Valley.  While isolated storms will be possible, the overall Thursday-Saturday time frame looks good to go for weather. 
WPC 4-5 day precipitation outlook 
Temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 80's.  Cannot rule out 90
00z EURO 2 m max temps Thurs PM (image weatherbell)
Friday is similar.  Will fine tune the weekend (Thursday-Sun for many) forecast today and tomorrow.  Overall looks good.  Have a good Monday.
























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