Posts

Showing posts from July, 2013

Tuesday

Tuesday morning forecast here.  Try out riverhawkweather.wordpress.com currently have forecasts up for most of the country

Introducing Riverhawk Weather

Several classmates and I have teamed up to start a new forecasting webpage.  It is called Riverhawk Weather.  The majority of my posts will be over there now but I will still link them here for the time being.  I'd be happy if you joined us! We have a facebook group (Riverhawk Weather) and a twitter (@riverhawkwx).  Here is this mornings forecast.

the url is riverhawkweather.wordpress.com

have a good monday

Heat Wave to Begin Today

Image
Another heat wave will begin today for several across Southern New England.  If you do not join the 90 degree club today do not worry; you will tomorrow, Friday, and Saturday.  With all these heat and humidity one would expect thunderstorms.  However there will be no real trigger to fire thunderstorms in Southern New England.  Up in Northern New England, specifically the Lakes Region, could certainly see thunderstorms today or tomorrow.   Yesterday a sneaky back door cold front screwed up the forecast for NE MA, S NH, and S ME.  As my forecasting professor said in college there may not be a weather event more difficult to forecast than a New England BDCF.

Short Range Forecast/Observations
As I like to lets start with temperatures this morning.  Can you see the Back Door Cold Front?
Dew Points are generally running above 60, although that is not the case in Essex County, SE NH, and Southern ME. Here is the surface analysis from 2 am.  The boundary has lifted somewhat to the Northeast si…

More Rounds of Rain/Thunder Possible

Image
Although some more rain and thunder will work its way up the coast the threat for Southern New England appears much less than yesterday.  A tornado has been confirmed in Windsor, CT making it the second confirmed tornado in Southern New England in 2013.  It is warm this morning
Dew Points again remain in the upper 60's/low 70's Our connection with the tropics remains.  Here is the water vapor satellite.  One thing I notice is that the boundary is back further to the west today as the trough in the Midwest has retrograded somewhat.  The tropical plume seems less active today than yesterday although it is early The radar has action in Northern New England, the Mid Atlantic, and off the Carolina/VA coasts Any downpours that do develop will have plenty of moisture to work with.  PWATS are running around 2 inches for Southern New England! That is the ultimate proof of a tropical air mass.   Around 2 PM the bulk of the moisture will be closer to the stalled frontal boundary.  It wil…

Severe Weather Threat

Image
It has turned out to be quite an active severe weather day in New England.  Reports of damage are filtering in every single minute.  Soon damage reports from Middlesex and Essex counties will trickle in as multiple cells have been tornado warned.   The tornado warnings in NE MA last until 430.  We are not looking at big, long tracked tornadoes; as NECN's Danielle Niles pointed out these tropically infused thunderstorms typical produce smaller, short lived tornadoes.  No matter as they still cause significant damage if they hit your house.  The other threat is the slow moving nature of these storms and the amount of moisture available.  A Flash Flood watch remains in effect for the majority of the region.  Some warnings are also present.  Find info here. The sun is popping out in Eastern MA as it has been doing all afternoon in Southern Worcester County and Northern Rhode Island. Here is the water vapor loop for the Eastern US.  Our moisture source is the Caribbean Sea and Central …

A Few More Days of Warm/Muggy

Image
June 2013 is over and into the record books as one of the wettest on record.  It seemed like it there was a threat for rain every single day.
The pattern is slowly changing.  An upper level low/500 mb trough has been present in the Ohio Valley/  This is flanked by ridges in the SW US, contributing to record warmth, as well as a strong Bermuda High.  Here is the 500 mb pattern Currently temperatures are running between 68-72 across SNE Dew points are very similar Here is the radar The rainfall is generally moving northward.  The best transport is over the Cape There is also a stationary boundary running through Central NY state, PA, and down to the Gulf of Mexico This is where all this tropical moisture is coming from.  Flash Flood Watches are up for portions of SNE It appears that the heaviest rains will be located along the stationary boundary.  However even if you are not in the Flash Flood Watch any shower that develops will have the potential to drop an inch of rain in a brief per…