Heat Wave to Begin Today

Another heat wave will begin today for several across Southern New England.  If you do not join the 90 degree club today do not worry; you will tomorrow, Friday, and Saturday.  With all these heat and humidity one would expect thunderstorms.  However there will be no real trigger to fire thunderstorms in Southern New England.  Up in Northern New England, specifically the Lakes Region, could certainly see thunderstorms today or tomorrow.   Yesterday a sneaky back door cold front screwed up the forecast for NE MA, S NH, and S ME.  As my forecasting professor said in college there may not be a weather event more difficult to forecast than a New England BDCF.

Short Range Forecast/Observations
As I like to lets start with temperatures this morning.  Can you see the Back Door Cold Front?
5 am 2 m temps (image weatherbell)
Dew Points are generally running above 60, although that is not the case in Essex County, SE NH, and Southern ME.
5 am 2 m dew points (NCEP)
Here is the surface analysis from 2 am.  The boundary has lifted somewhat to the Northeast since this map was created
WPC surface analysis 2 am
This boundary should continue to lift north throughout the day.  Here is the radar this morning
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 618 am
These showers are generally moving NNE in a direction similar to the front.  Western MA/CT may get clipped as these showers move into Northern New England.  There is still plenty of moisture to work with.  Here is the water vapor satellite image
GOES_East Water Vapor Satellite 545 am
There is a deep trough in the central US and a strong ridge over the Western Atlantic.  There has been record warmth in the Western US, and record cold in the Central US.  Our record high temps for early July are safe in New England as they were set in the epic Heat Wave of July 1911 that killed hundreds in the Northeast.
00z EURO 500 mb heights 8 PM (image weatherbell)
High temperatures will rise to the low 90's near Boston, Providence, Hartford, and Springfield.  Most are near 90 with the exception of the Cape and Islands, Northern Worcester County, the Berkshires, and NW CT.  With southerly flow around the high pressure in the Atlantic there will be a sea breeze on the CT/RI beaches and Cape/Is.
06z NAM hires 2 m temp 3 PM (image weatherbell)
There is only a slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm today
WPC Day 1 Precipitation Outlook
tonight lows will only drop to around 70. 

Fourth of July
Temperatures will be climbing rapidly tomorrow morning.  It will already be in the mid 80's by 10 am.  Here is the surface chart
WPC surface forecast 8 am Thur
The Southeast may see some rouge tropical storm developing tomorrow. However for us just Hazy, Hot, and Humid
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 PM Thur (image weatherbell)
Again just a slight chance of a shower/storm
WPC Day 2 Precipitation Outlook
Lower to mid 90's
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 pm Fri (image weatherbell)
Friday should be mainly dry
WPC Day 3 Precipitation Outlook
Warm, temperatures 88-96.  Will fine tune this forecast as there could be thunderstorms Sunday.  I think Saturday is another prime summer day.  Have a Great 4th everyone!


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