A Few More Days of Warm/Muggy

June 2013 is over and into the record books as one of the wettest on record.  It seemed like it there was a threat for rain every single day.

NWS Top 10 June Rainfall Totals

The pattern is slowly changing.  An upper level low/500 mb trough has been present in the Ohio Valley/  This is flanked by ridges in the SW US, contributing to record warmth, as well as a strong Bermuda High.  Here is the 500 mb pattern

06z NAM 500 mb heights/vorticity 8 am (NCEP)

Currently temperatures are running between 68-72 across SNE

2 m temps 5 am (image NCEP)

Dew points are very similar

2 m dew points 5 am (NCEP)

Here is the radar

NWS Northeast Regional Radar 548 am

The rainfall is generally moving northward.  The best transport is over the Cape

09z SPC mesoanalysis 850mb moisture transport

There is also a stationary boundary running through Central NY state, PA, and down to the Gulf of Mexico

WPC surface analysis 2 am

This is where all this tropical moisture is coming from.  Flash Flood Watches are up for portions of SNE

NWS Boston headlines/hazards

It appears that the heaviest rains will be located along the stationary boundary.  However even if you are not in the Flash Flood Watch any shower that develops will have the potential to drop an inch of rain in a brief period of time.  

WPC Day 1 Precipitation Outlook

The threat is severe weather is minimal; however dangerous lightning will accompany any thunderstorm that is able to develop.  Damaging winds are possible as well.

SPC Day 1 Thunderstorm Outlook

Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the mid to upper 70's

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 3 PM (image weatherbell)

The Cape is already seeing rain; the first batch of showers gets to Hartford by 730-8, Providence 830, Worcester and Metrowest around 9.  These may cause problems for the morning commute.  Also looking like a second wave develops early this afternoon.  We are simply tapping tropical moisture.  That will help keep temperatures up tonight.  It will not drop below 67-68 in a lot of places tonight.  Tomorrow we can expect more scattered/isolated thunderstorms and downpours

WPC Day 2 Precipitation Outlook

The thunderstorm threat is similar; heavy rain and dangerous lightning but low chance of severe wind, hail, and tornadoes.  

SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook

The NAM hires is indicating a heavy stream of showers/embedded thunder tomorrow morning around 7 am so heads up with the morning commute.

06z NAM hires simulated radar 7 am Tues (image weatherbell)

Temperatures will rise to the upper 70's/low 80's

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 pm Tues (image weatherbell)

North and West of Boston may approach the mid to upper 80's, specifically the Merrimack River Valley.  The pattern begins to shift on Wednesday but the threat for showers and storms will continue.  Its going to be warm on Wednesday and it has great beach potential.  Be prepared for late afternoon thunderstorms all throughout New England.

06z NAM hires 2 m temps Wed 2 PM (image weatherbell)

SPC does not have a risk of severe storms yet but I think this will upgrade by Wednesday morning.  

SPC Day 3 Thunderstorm Outlook

A stationary boundary will be present in Southern Canada

WPC Surface Forecast Wed 8 am

Fourth of July Forecast

High pressure in the Western Atlantic continues to be in control

WPC Surface Forecast Thursday 8 am

The main focus for showers and thunderstorms looks to be out by the boundary in the Ohio Valley.  While isolated storms will be possible, the overall Thursday-Saturday time frame looks good to go for weather. 

WPC 4-5 day precipitation outlook 

Temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 80's.  Cannot rule out 90

00z EURO 2 m max temps Thurs PM (image weatherbell)

Friday is similar.  Will fine tune the weekend (Thursday-Sun for many) forecast today and tomorrow.  Overall looks good.  Have a good Monday.