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Showing posts from July, 2016

Rain Lingers Over SE MA, Weekend Forecst

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Some rain is better than no rain and that's what most of Southern New England received this morning.  It was exactly the type of rain needed in that it was a steady rain and not a torrential downpour from a thunderstorm.  Still it could have been more if not for a blow up of convection in the waters south of New England.  That convection essentially "robbed" moisture from SNE.  Here is the radar as of 10 AM As of the 915 visible satellite loop you can see this convection blow up in the Atlantic.  But you can also see clearing in Upstate New York.  That will work its way into New England over the next few hours.  SE MA will be the last to clear.  Another 1-2 inches are possible from Plymouth to Middleboro to New Bedford and areas east. That means temperatures this afternoon will climb to near 80.  Some places like the CT River Valley and Merrimack River Valley will surpass 80 while others like Worcester probably fall a few degrees short. We also have to keep an eye out fo…

Heavy Rain Likely Tomorrow....For Some

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Like a good snowstorm the cutoff between beneficial rain and nah will be a matter of miles tomorrow.   The National Weather Service has issued a flood watch for SE MA, RI and CT.  That doesn't include Worcester County has the bulk of the moisture will be closer to the South Coast.
Here is the current radar for the entire Northeast.
  The activity in Northern New England is from an approaching cold front.  A surface low has formed in the Mid Atlantic.  This will track Northeast and link up with the northern front that will stall near the South Coast.
Now extremely tropical moisture will be in place.  Our wind is out the Southwest.  On this water vapor satellite loop (which tracks the amount of moisture in the atmosphere) track the flow from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico into the Eastern United States.
Showers will break out ahead of the cold front later this evening in Western MA/CT and work east after midnight.  By daybreak areas south of the Pike will be raining.  Now does the …

Heat Advisory Until 6 PM

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A Heat Advisory has been issued until 6 PM for inland areas away from the coast.  The Merrimack, Connecticut and Blackstone River valley's are all included in this.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * LOCATION...NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT...NORTHERNMOST RHODE ISLAND... AND MUCH OF INTERIOR EASTER MASSACHUSETTS * HEAT INDEX VALUES...95 TO 100... DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS 65 TO 70. * TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH OVEREXERTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SUN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS. TAKE EXTRA …

Friday Storms Rip Across SNE

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Friday evening was wild across Southern New England.  Although we could see lightning and hear thunder most of the Blackstone Valley was spared the strongest thunderstorms.  A severe storm ripped through Worcester, Grafton, Westboro, Southboro and Framingham (among others).  Another severe storm tore through Northern Rhode Island and treated us to one hell of a light show last night.
The damage reports are numerous across the region.  Here is the radar image from 749 PM last night
 That nasty looking cell in Worcester produced this damage in Southboro (images thanks to the National Weather Service Skywarn Spotter Network facebook page)
A lot of weather enthusiasts root for severe weather but it is important to remember the power of these storms and the destruction they can cause.  For many folks across the commonwealth today is not a fun day.   That said the power of mother nature is second to none.    A threat of thunderstorms also exists this afternoon and tonight.

General Overview
T…

Severe Drought Expands in Southern New England

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Dry conditions continue across Southern New England.  The area of moderate and severe drought continues to expand.  The dryness started in 2014.  Hurricane Arthur helped dent the conditions in July of 2014.  The heavy snow of January-March 2015 was rather dry and fluffy so that did not do much to alleviate the problem.  After some relief in June of 2015 (Tropical Storm Bill) we went right back to dry.  I decided to do some research and I've found a lot of information.

1) The meteorological cause of the current drought
2) Impacts on the region
3) Historical Droughts in Southern New England  
Here is the Northeast Regional Drought Monitor,
The first chart shows the latest drought monitor.  Severe and moderate drought has conquered more area with this update.  The second chart shows the percent of normal precipitation for the first half of 2016.  We are running around 75% in Southern New England.  We ran about 80-90% in 2015.   So why exactly has this happened?  
There are two main …

Summer Heat Across The US

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A rather common summertime pattern is setting up across the United States bringing with it lots of heat and thunderstorms.  This pattern hasn't really developed since the super warm summer of 2012 and as a result many locations in the Central US are forecast to see their highest temperatures since then.  Here in Southern New England we will be largely spared that type of heat.  In fact yesterday and today are in the low to mid 80's with dew points in the 40's/50's.  The National Weather Service has issued a statement warning of elevated fire danger today.

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY... THOUGH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY, MASSACHUSETTS STATE FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS HAVE ADVISED OF A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER GIVEN WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITY VALUES...AND LACK OF RAINFALL. If you are one to complain about that then there is nothing we can do for you as a human being.  The heat and another chance for thunderstorms will return Friday.

General Overview
First…

Recapping Monday's Severe Weather

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Although the Blackstone Valley was spared yesterday severe weather ripped through Southern New England causing extensive damage in Haverhill, Weymouth, Jamaica Plain and other local communities.  The storm that caused the damage south of Boston formed near Worcester.  I expected a squall line to form but it never did.  I placed my faith in the high resolution computer models and they let me down in my home area.  Two weeks ago we were hit hard in the Blackstone Valley when everyone else missed out.  This time it was us- that is severe weather.  One complex of storms near the MA/NH border seemed to draw a lot of energy from MA into it and results were damage like this in S NH.
The storm that formed in Worcester left an even greater trail of destruction.  Here is damage in Quincy, MA
This damage is from a Microburst (although the storm south of Boston might be a Macroburst- larger area of damage).  What is a microburst?  Check out this diagram from the NWS Boston
A microburst forms when…

Strong Thunderstorms Possible Today

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A cold front approaching from the west will fire off strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  Ahead of these storms we will find temperatures in the low 90's.  Add in the humidity and it will feel closer to 100.  The storms will first impact the Berkshires/western MA between 2-3 PM, Worcester County/Hartford 3-6 PM and Boston/Eastern MA 4-730 PM,  Damaging winds are the number one threat today along with frequent lightning.  Hail and an isolated tornado (especially Western MA and into New York) are also possible.

General Overview
The SPC has issued a slight risk for Western New England and a marginal risk for Central/Eastern New England
Here is the cold front as of 2 AM.  As the warm front lifts through to our west it will help to re-enforce the heat and humidity providing fuel for the thunderstorms.
High temperatures today are low 90's although some places in Eastern MA may hit the mid 90's.
The cold front is on the move and by 2 PM thunderstorms will b…