Summertime Heat and Thunderstorms (Update 7/7/16 630 AM)

 AM computer guidance is suggesting all of Central MA and NE CT/N RI could be in for some downpours starting around 1 PM
06z NAM hires Simulated Radar 5 PM (image college of dupage wxcenter)
The National Weather Service is noting a flash flood threat with these storms as 2" of rain can fall in a short period of time.

Previous discussion below

An active jet stream combining with summer heat will lead to multiple threats for showers/thunderstorms over the next few days.  The storms will often serve as relief from oppressive humidity but they may wreak havoc on weekend plans.  Once again Friday night fireworks may be impacted by rain.  I will say this- I have higher confidence in the fireworks this Friday than I did last week.

The greatest thunderstorm threat tomorrow is north of the Pike and west of 495.  That said an isolated cell or two could stray south of the Pike particularly between 84 and 95.  South winds will help push very humid air into the region.  Dew points will be around 70.  High temps look to be a degree or two cooler than today but still around 90.
NWS NDFD 2 m temps Thursday (image Weatherbell)
 Here is the simulated radar which gives a general idea of where convection will fire
18z NAM hires simulated radar 4 PM Thursday (image College of Dupage Wxcenter)
High pressure to the Northeast of New England will back a cold front off the Atlantic into the region.  Where this boundary sets up exactly will determine how hot it is and how much convection will fire.  These systems often need a source of "lift" and there isn't a feature that sticks out of most of Friday into Friday evening.  That changes overnight Friday into Saturday.
WPC Surface forecast Friday 8 PM
As I see it Hartford and Springfield are near 90 on Friday.  Worcester and Boston are in the mid 70's.  Providence and the valleys are closer to 80.
NWS NDFD max temps Friday (image Weatherbell)
Here is the 8 PM radar which has some showers around but not the strong/severe thunderstorms of last week.
18z NAM hires simulated radar 8 PM Friday (image College of Dupage Wxcenter)
As you can see from the image above several waves of precipitation to our west will work towards New England overnight Friday.
WPC Surface forecast Saturday 8 AM
Surface low pressure will move across Saturday AM between 2-10 AM.  A few weaker disturbances will follow Saturday PM and Sunday AM.  Temperatures cool off both days before returning to seasonable 80's early next week.  

-Zack Green


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