Friday, July 29, 2016

Rain Lingers Over SE MA, Weekend Forecst

Some rain is better than no rain and that's what most of Southern New England received this morning.  It was exactly the type of rain needed in that it was a steady rain and not a torrential downpour from a thunderstorm.  Still it could have been more if not for a blow up of convection in the waters south of New England.  That convection essentially "robbed" moisture from SNE.  Here is the radar as of 10 AM
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 
As of the 915 visible satellite loop you can see this convection blow up in the Atlantic.  But you can also see clearing in Upstate New York.  That will work its way into New England over the next few hours.  SE MA will be the last to clear.  Another 1-2 inches are possible from Plymouth to Middleboro to New Bedford and areas east.
NOAA GOES-East visible satellite loop
That means temperatures this afternoon will climb to near 80.  Some places like the CT River Valley and Merrimack River Valley will surpass 80 while others like Worcester probably fall a few degrees short.
NWS NDFD 2 M max temp forecast Friday (image Weatherbell)
We also have to keep an eye out for a few showers/brief thunderstorms this afternoon in interior MA such as Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire and Franklin counties.  For example here is 4 PM.  The storms are weak and have nothing to sustain them so they will rain themselves out quickly but keep an eye out for them.
13z HRRR Simulated Radar 4 PM (image College of Dupage WxCenter)
Weekend Forecast
Saturday is looking terrific to start.  The cold front will push far enough offshore for high pressure to take control.  The high will be centered in Canada so we get a break from the 90s and high dew points.  A sea breeze will form at the coast tomorrow afternoon but elsewhere highs should be in the low to mid 80s.  We will have to watch for an isolated shower Saturday afternoon/evening but the chance is low.
NWS NDFD 2 m max temps Saturday (image Weatherbell)
By Sunday a upper level feature will work into the region.  Timing is a bit of an issue but low pressure will again form south of New England.  Another feature of rain looks likely to move into Western New England.  Some guidance speeds this up and works it into New England later Saturday although I doubt this.  The set up look similar to today just a slower mover.  So periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely in Southern New England.  This may linger into Monday.  Here is the forecast surface chart Monday AM.
WPC Surface Forecast Monday 8 AM
Monday happens to be August 1.  Although Hurricane season starts on June 1 (this year we had Alex in January!) it peaks August-October.   Right on time some waves near Africa are showing signs of organization.  No I don't believe these make it anywhere near the east coast but its time to pay attention.
National Hurricane Center 5 day forecast outlook
There is plenty of fuel in the Atlantic.  August 19 marks the 25th anniversary of Hurricane Bob, the last hurricane to directly strike New England.  Sure we have felt impacts, even significant impacts from Floyd, Irene and Sandy but no storm has hit at hurricane intensity in 25 years.  Are we due?  Yes and no.  Odds say yes but the atmosphere does what the atmosphere wants.  It could spin up two hurricanes in two weeks (1954), 6 hurricanes in 22 years (1938-1960) or no hurricanes in 25 years.  
Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (Image Weatherbell)
I will try and post an update tomorrow before taking a few days off to head to the beach.  

-Zack Green

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