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Showing posts from May, 2014

Mother's Day Weekend Forecast

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It looks like a brief warm up is on the way for the weekend.  Enjoy it!  Here is the forecast for the rest of the week/weekend.

Short Term Forecast
Temperatures this afternoon are generally in the upper 50's.  However when there are breaks of sun and the wind relaxes temperatures jump into the mid 60's
Here is the current regional radar loop Here is the visible satellite These clouds and showers are driven by differences in ground temperature and cold air aloft.  Check the surface chart and notice flow is out of Northwest around high pressure in Ontario/Quebec Also notice the front draped horizontally across the US.  This front will slowly push north and east as a trough in the west digs.  This will allow for some severe weather in the Central US over the next several days.  In the meantime tonight clouds will dissipate tonight so temperatures will fall into the upper 30's/low 40's.  
Wednesday High pressure will remain in control tomorrow.  Winds will be lighter (except…

Hurricane Season A Month Away

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In my opinion the worst forecast I have ever made was for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season (some of you may debate that).  I looked at the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies of March and April, the persistent cold of March 2013 and saw similarities to 1954 and 2005.  I tossed out 1993 as an analog which was probably the best match in hindsight.  Here is my post from March 2013.  Lessons were learned on my part namely trust the data and do not rush a forecast just to be first. 2013 forecast 20-25 named storms 8-12 hurricanes 4-6 major with 1 cat 5
Actual 2013 13 named storms 2 Hurricanes 0 Major Hurricanes
I am glad the United States was sparred and everyone got a year to relax.  I am also disappointed in myself for ignoring the data I've been collecting since my Sr year at Umass-Lowell.  Instead of going big with a 20-25 year I would have pulled back to 11-15 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes, and 2-4 major.  I still would have been wrong but I would have been closer.  With that said …

Decent Weekend, Long Range Thoughts

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The cold that has been bottled up in Canada surged into the United States as April ended and May began.  Here is the temperature anomaly for the last two weeks (departure from average)
Here is the temperature anomaly from 8 am this morning off the GFS Unfortunately mother nature brought this cool air mass into the US in violent fashion.  It snowed heavily in the Dakota's, rained heavily in Florida, and most notably tornadoes claimed the lives of dozens of people from Kansas to North Carolina.  Tornado season had gotten off to a record quiet start in 2014.  It is a reminder that all it takes is one severe outbreak to cause untold devastation.  On a lighter note, the weekend forecast
Short Term Forecast Temps tonight are in the upper 50's in general and will not fall much due to cloud cover.  After midnight the clouds will erode away and temps will fall to around 50.  Tomorrow will be Partly Cloudy with a chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms due to some cold air aloft.  Temps…