Decent Weekend, Long Range Thoughts
The cold that has been bottled up in Canada surged into the United States as April ended and May began. Here is the temperature anomaly for the last two weeks (departure from average)
Here is the temperature anomaly from 8 am this morning off the GFS
Unfortunately mother nature brought this cool air mass into the US in violent fashion. It snowed heavily in the Dakota's, rained heavily in Florida, and most notably tornadoes claimed the lives of dozens of people from Kansas to North Carolina. Tornado season had gotten off to a record quiet start in 2014. It is a reminder that all it takes is one severe outbreak to cause untold devastation. On a lighter note, the weekend forecast
|NCEP CFSv2 2 week temperature anomaly (Image Weatherbell)|
|12z GFS 8 am 2 m temp anomaly (Image Weatherbell)|
Short Term Forecast
Temps tonight are in the upper 50's in general and will not fall much due to cloud cover. After midnight the clouds will erode away and temps will fall to around 50. Tomorrow will be Partly Cloudy with a chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms due to some cold air aloft. Temps will be in the low 60's west of 495 and mid 60's closer to Boston. Expect similar weather on Saturday albeit warmer inland.
Sunday looks to be showery with temperatures in the mid 50s to near 60. The culprit will be an Upper Level Low Pressure system moving out of the Great Lakes
|12z NAM 500 mb vort 2 PM Sunday (Image NCEP)|
Early next week will be cooler than average due to the upper level system passing slowly offshore. It should be mainly dry with only isolated showers Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday. By Thursday another disturbance will be approaching Southern New England. A warm front will try to move across the region but it will be fought by a northeast wind off the Gulf of Maine. This fight could go on for several days. But it is in the longer range so nothing to worry about as of now. Cool air looks to reload in Canada in the 6-10 day, especially Eastern Canada. Sorry for those looking for Sunny and 75...try listening to some Joe Nichols.