Posts

Showing posts from January, 2016

Tracking the Blizzard (To Be)

Image
I am on record calling the storm off yesterday.  I still believe it is a non event for most of the region but perhaps I was a bit premature in saying just a few flakes here and there.  In fact the South Coast of CT, RI, MA (including Cape and Islands) may see a significant event.  It will be still be hard to get much north of the Pike.  But I can already feel the egg white starting to hit my face.
Here are the National Weather Service watches and warnings for Southern New England this afternoon.  The Vineyard is under a Blizzard Warning!

A winter storm warning has been posted in pink.  Although we are missing out on 95% of the storm it is still very impressive.  Here is the NWS snowfall forecast for the Northeast US
This is pretty wild and will likely crack the top 15 snowstorms of all time when accounting for population and snow totals.  The storm is a beauty on satellite
The radar as of 4 PM
High pressure and dry air stops this beast from making a ton of noise in New England.  But i…

Cancel the Storm

UPDATE- I am leaving this post.  One must take the good and the bad in forecasting.  Below is my apology to my facebook friends.

Feb 2010- predict 8-12 we get 0. Jan 2016 predict 0 we get 6". 2 of my worst forecasts ever. I'll be better Facebook friends who read my weather posts. Sorry about this one I messed up.


Enjoy the weekend New England- no storm for us.  A few flakes at the coast but put the plows away.  Most of the energy will transfer to a secondary low well out to sea. Likely wind advisory criteria on the Cape and Islands Sunday with blustery conditions for the rest of Southern New England.  There are still high tides astronomically this weekend so some minor coastal flooding is possible in flood prone areas.

GO PATS

-Zack Green

Wednesday Update

Image
When watching the news or searching facebook it is important to know who is providing the information and where it is they are talking about.  No one in Southern New England is promising 2 feet of snow unless it is a 12 year old wish casting online.  When the news is talking about a historic storm they are referring to the DMV (DC, Maryland, Virginia).  See my post yesterday for a larger discussion on the evolution of the storm.

General Overview 
The energy that will be responsible for the storm is now onshore.  It is a weak frontal system in the Pacific Northwest.  This energy will dive southeast towards the four corners and combine with another piece of energy in Texas (circled).
This will lead to a surface storm that should produce showers and thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast states.
We went over this yesterday.  So now the question is why won't the storm come all the way up the East Coast?  The first answer is it develops and closes off too quickly.  Let us review the 2015 Ja…

Thoughts on Weekend Storm

Image
I have chosen to avoid the hype for the potential major winter storm this weekend.  Now is the time to add some general thoughts.  I am leaning towards a modest snowstorm in Southern New England with the jackpot well to our south.  Our friends in the DMV have been thirsty for a blockbuster snowstorm and it looks like they will get it. 

General Overview
The energy associated with this storm has not yet entered the US.  When it does tonight expect the weather guidance to really lock onto a solution.  As it stands there is pretty remarkable agreement that something will happen along the east coast.  Lets track the upper air energy
I've drawn the general track of the upper level energy.   It is likely I have drawn it a bit far to the north. It will strengthen as it gets into Dixie and will pick up Gulf and Atlantic moisture.  At the surface the "storm" is not much to look at as of right now.  But by Thursday a weak surface low should be moving across Texas
Fast forward 24 hou…