Showing posts from May, 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300 Issued

UPDATE 4: 7:18 PM A well-defined tornado signature is showing up in Eastern NY/Western CT.

UPDATE 3: 7:14 PM

Storm arrives shortly in Springfield, about an hour in Worcester, hour and a half for Lowell.  The thunderstorm is expected to collapse as it reaches the marine layer, depicted by the solid line from Hingham to New Haven.

UPDATE 2: 5:55 PM Severe Thunderstorm Warning's have been issued for Berkshire and Franklin counties in NW Massachusetts

A special weather statement has been issued advertising pea-size hail and winds 30-40 MPH for the greater Springfield area through 630 PM.  Frequent lightning will make outdoor conditions dangerous over next hour or so.

UPDATE 1: 4:33 PM Strong storms are moving through Albany right now
Nickel size hail is being reported

Original Post Below

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued a *Severe Thunderstorm Watch* until 9 PM for interior New England and Upstate New York.
A wind gust is considered severe at 58 MPH.  Severe hail is …

Rumbles or Rumors? Storms For Some Later

Some residents of Southern New England will have to keep eyes and ears to the sky today as thunderstorms are forecast to roll through Western and Northern communities this afternoon and evening.  Some folks may even have to dodge a stray afternoon shower but the main action will be after 3 PM.   Temperatures will climb into the low 70's for most, although a few of the higher elevations may top out in the upper 60's.

General Outlook
Some rain showers are present in the Hudson River Valley and off the South Coast.  Dense fog developed this morning in Southern Worcester County, RI, and SE MA.  Visibilities are improving and the dense fog advisory will expire at 10 AM.   The sun is out in upstate New York and PA and this is moving east towards New England.
You may be able to see the spin in the clouds north of the Great Lakes.   Trailing from the center of this storm is a cold front that will serve as a trigger for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across the Northeast.

Cloudy, But Mostly Dry Next Few Days

High pressure will protect Southern New England from rain showers today even as skies remain mostly gray and temperatures stay 10 degrees below normal.  The optimist would say 10 degrees below normal is still 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.  Landscapers, golfers, and other outdoor industries will take the break from precipitation because more is in the forecast later this week.

General Overview
An upper-level low is spinning north of the Great Lakes, while an upper-level ridge sits in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean.  Temperatures spiked into the mid to upper 90's in South Florida this weekend, setting the record for warmest May temperature on record.
There are two weak frontal boundaries present across the Eastern US.  One is at the leading edge of the ULL (upper-level low) and the other separates the ULR (upper-level ridge) from the ULL.
As of 630 AM rain was falling in Western NY and PA.  Weak high-pressure offshore of New England will protect the region from precipitation durin…

Memorial Day Weekend Outlook

I apologize for the lack of posts in recent days.  I've been working on several projects that require a higher priority than the routine mid to late spring weather pattern.  Memorial Day weekend is a landmark for most Americans.  First and foremost we pause to remember those who died fighting for our right to live freely.  It's also the unofficial start to the summer season and many Americans party in honor of the long weekend.  Many of these parties are outdoors which require a decent weather forecast.  There may be a chance of showers but should you make alternative plans?

Short Term Forecast
Low pressure tracking northeast and a front south of New England have brought more rain to the region.  So far this month 3-6" has fallen across most of SNE.
At the surface, the low is slowly tracking northeast.  The center is shown here near Washington, DC.
There is a strong air mass contrast south of the warm front and north of it.  This allowed for the rain shield to blossom we…

Summer Like Heat Means Summer Like Storms?

Short range, high-resolution computer guidance is suggesting the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms this evening across Southern New England.  A lot of ingredients for nocturnal thunderstorms will be present across the region from early this evening through midnight.  The atmosphere will be unstable thanks to blistering mid-summer heat that has taken hold over the past 2 days.
A sea breeze is protecting communities along Narragansett Bay and on Cape Cod.  Temperatures will continue to rise, even as a few clouds develop in Southeastern New England.  These should burn off by late afternoon.  To our west lies a cold front.
The current Northeast regional radar does not look all that impressive.  Some convection is firing in Western New York, but nothing significant at the moment.
The simulated radar loop, however, looks very impressive as we move forward this afternoon/evening.
This afternoon and early this evening will be dry, just hot.  Thunderstorms are expected to enter Wes…

Mother's Day Gift Is On Back Order

Low pressure off the New England coast will send backlash rains and winds across Eastern New England this afternoon through the night and into Monday.  The rain will end midday tomorrow and my Mother's Day gift to all will be a return of warm weather Tuesday.  I tried to have it sent for today but Mother Nature does what she wants when she wants (like a good woman should).  I'm pretty sure my own beautiful mother does not read my blog so she won't know her gift is on back order and I'd appreciate if no one told her.  She doesn't like to be "on the internet" anyway.
General Overview Temperatures as of 11 AM were in the 50's in SE MA but 40's everywhere else. Look what happened in the higher elevations of Vermont this morning.  This is shades of 1977 (perhaps we can thank climate change for missing out on this snow). I saw the potential for a few flakes when looking over the data yesterday, but nothing I saw indicated that a plowable snowfall was lik…