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Showing posts from March, 2014

Rainfall Enables River Rises

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Heavy rain overnight enabled local rivers and streams to rise and the result is minor to moderate flooding across Southern New England.  Here is a map of the rainfall totals from this system

5.22" have fallen in Hope Valley, RI which is the highest amount I have found so far. See reports here.  Not surprisingly several rivers are near or above flood stage.  Yellow is near flood stage, orange is minor flooding, and red is moderate flooding.
You can view river forecasts here .  The Yantic River in SE CT is the only river in moderate flood stage at the moment
The forecasts call for only minor flooding from here on out.  I did notice the rivers rose faster and higher than most of the forecast.  For example the Blackstone was forecast to rise to 6.6 ft yesterday afternoon, yet it is already at 8.3 feet.
The question now becomes how much more rain?  First of all let's look at the local surface chart A stalled boundary over the Cape separates raw temperatures from more spring like w…

Flood Watch For Interior Southern New England

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Light rain fell across much of Southern New England (SNE) yesterday as a cold front moved into the Atlantic.  The result is pretty nice Saturday morning as heights have risen in the northeast.  This will be short lived as a coastal low will creep slowly past the South Shore resulting in inches of rain.  The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Flood Watch for interior SNE
Current Conditions A look at the regional visible satellite shows some breaks of sun in the clouds this AM This has allowed some temperatures to jump into the low 50's Here is the 500 mb for 11 am off the 12z NAM (8 am model run).   Notice the ridge over the NE?  That will push offshore into the Western Atlantic today.  The dip in the Mississippi River Valley is driving our rainstorm and that will slowly push east.  The rain is right on doorstep of SNE  The Water Vapor Loop shows how much moisture is available  That moisture is moving directly up the east coast Now let's move forward and talk about…

Rounds of Rain This Weekend

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Despite a snow pack that seemed to last forever this weekend, there are some pockets of the Northeast that could use a little rain.  The problem was worse after the dry fall and it has recovered nicely in the last 3 months.  This is where we were on New Years Eve
Here is where we are as of Monday (3/25) Now we are looking at excessive rain over the next several days.  Two rounds of heavy are rain will move across Southern New England over the weekend, specifically Friday and Saturday night.  
Short Term Forecast Temperatures are not going to drop much overnight so tomorrow morning will be warmer than the last few.  Temperatures will generally be in the mid 30's.  North and West of Worcester will see temps hovering at or below freezing.  So light rain will be falling in this region at the same time so the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory (in blue) A warm front will get rid of the cold air and temperatures tomorrow will rise into the 50's.  Rain will …

Powerful Storm to Clip SE New England

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Thank you to everyone who prayed, cried, and sent positive thoughts to keep this storm largely out to sea.  Although some impacts will still be felt (especially on the Cape) the region by and large dodged a bullet.  A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Bristol and Plymouth Counties while a Blizzard Watch is in effect for the Cape and Islands.  Other headlines include a High Wind Watch is also in effect for the Cape and Islands for wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH.  A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect for the North facing beaches on the Cape and Nantucket.
Its another cold start this morning.  Most of Southern New England is waking up to temperatures in the teens High pressure is in charge along the east coast, but this will retreat into the Atlantic Ocean during the day Tuesday.  You can see the two pieces of our storm on the chart already.  One low is diving through the Great Lakes while the other is organizing off the SE US coast Here is the IR-rainbow satellite loopTuesday Clouds wil…

Mid Week Coastal Storm To Approach Southern New England

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A strong ocean storm will develop off the East Coast and it looks like it track close enough to New England to produce some effects.  There are still plausible scenario's in which the storm slides out to sea and the impact is minimal.  However given the projected strength of the system let's take a look at it.

Short Term Forecast
Temperatures today warmed into the 50's in Southern New England (SNE) today
A surface low tracking through Northern New England and associated warm front allowed for these "warm" temperatures today.  This is short lived however as a strong Arctic high is descending into the Upper Plains
See the cold front north of Michigan?  That will bring potentially record breaking cold on Monday.  Sunday is not bitter cold, but temperatures in general will max out in the upper 30's outside of SE MA.  SE MA should reach the mid 40's
By Monday morning temperatures are in the single digits North and West of Worcester and in the teens for the rest…

PM Rain, Overnight Freeze for SNE

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The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all of Southern New England except for the immediate south coasts of CT, RI, and MA
This is for overnight tonight through early Thursday AM.  The main concern is a flash freeze tonight as a bitterly cold Arctic air mass is behind the storm.  1-3" of snow is also possible.
Overview The temperature gradient is impressive across New England this AM. We stretch from the mid 20's in NH, VT, and ME to the low 40's in S CT, RI, MA. Here is the surface chart as of 2 am.  The storm is strengthening in the Mid Mississippi River Valley The system is large and is loaded with moisture.  Here is the IR satellite Timing, PM Forecast Here is the radar as of 528 am.  Notice there is some snow breaking out in VT, but most of the precipitation has not moved into the NE yet Although temperatures will be raw in parts of Middlesex, Essex, and Worcester Counties they will still be above freezing.  To those living so…