PM Rain, Overnight Freeze for SNE

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all of Southern New England except for the immediate south coasts of CT, RI, and MA

NWS Boston Headlines 3.12.2014

This is for overnight tonight through early Thursday AM.  The main concern is a flash freeze tonight as a bitterly cold Arctic air mass is behind the storm.  1-3" of snow is also possible.

Overview

The temperature gradient is impressive across New England this AM. We stretch from the mid 20's in NH, VT, and ME to the low 40's in S CT, RI, MA.

4 am 2 m temps (image Weatherbell)

Here is the surface chart as of 2 am.  The storm is strengthening in the Mid Mississippi River Valley

WPC Surface Analysis 2 am EST

The system is large and is loaded with moisture.  Here is the IR satellite 

NOAA GOES_Composite IR Rainbow Satellite Loop 445 am

Timing, PM Forecast

Here is the radar as of 528 am.  Notice there is some snow breaking out in VT, but most of the precipitation has not moved into the NE yet

NWS Northeast Regional Radar 528 am

Although temperatures will be raw in parts of Middlesex, Essex, and Worcester Counties they will still be above freezing.  To those living south of the pike temps should spike into the 50's this PM

07z HRRR 2 m temps 3 PM (image Weatherbell)

The steady rain moves in between 3-4 PM

07z HRRR Simulated Radar 4 PM (Image Weatherbell)

Steady to heavy rain will fall until around midnight.  Then as temperatures fall winds will begin to howl setting the stage for a nasty Thursday.  Expect winds sustained 15-20 mph with gusts 30-40 on Thursday.  With a high temperature of 20 that means its going to feel like below 0.  Here is the NWS snow forecast for this storm

NWS Boston forecast snow total 3/12/14

Its likely Wind Advisories will go up for tomorrow.  I don't believe flooding will be a major issue, but track your local rivers here

Have a good one

-Zack Green