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Showing posts from June, 2011

Fourth of July BBQ/Party forecast

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This is part 3 of my Fourth of July Forecast.  Rather than bore you with talk, here is an hourly forecast through Sunday.  Fireworks forecast here, beach forecast here.  Beach forecast now includes Lakes forecast.  I'll update this with Monday's forecast in detail tomorrow.



Comments...Showers possible for a time tomorrow afternoon, but nothing to cancel plans.  Firework celebration and cookouts should go off just fine.  Sunday on the other hand will feature a potential potent round of showers and thunderstorms.  These may make folks having a party have to make back up indoor plans for short periods of time.  Not a wash out, humid.   Not everyone will see storms; that is why I also have listed sun and clouds.  Monday looks nice, 80 degrees and mostly sunny.  
Tropical Storm Arlene made landfall this morning in Mexico.  Its lucky the storm made landfall when it did; it looked ready to rapidly intensify into a Hurricane.  Rains will cause flooding in Mexico, however hopefully the m…

Fourth of July Beach Forecast

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This is Part 2 of my 4th of July Forecast. Part 1 is the firework times/forecast.  See here.



Overview: Saturday is the best day to head to the beach as showers and thunderstorms will be present in the afternoon on both Friday and Sunday.  Temperatures will be cooler at the coast, but the presence of a West wind will keep sea breezes at bay.

South Rhode Island Coast
Friday- The chance of a thunderstorm is small and limited to a brief period between 12 PM and 6 PM.  Otherwise partly cloudy skies with a high of 74.  Waves will 1-2 ft and winds shift throughout the day from the North (offshore) to the South (onshore).  The sea breeze will act to weaken any thunderstorm's that do form.

Saturday- Mostly sunny with highs in the mid 70's, call it 76.  Winds from the SSW (south south west)  at 10 mph.  Some of the winds could blow around a beach umbrella so just make sure they are secure.  Waves around 1 ft.

Sunday- Thunderstorm's likely by late afternoon/early evening, but not before…

Fireworks forecast and Times for select locations

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Only two weather extremes will cancel a firework display; too wet or too dry.  Other parts of the country will have to worry about the too wet or too dry part but not New England.  A plethora of cities and towns in the region will have firework displays this weekend.  A Monday 4th of July is the best day for the holiday (IMO).  Here’s the forecast for each night and start time/location.

Friday July 1 Northbridge 9 PM Lasalle Field  Worcester 930 PM Belmont Hill South Yarmouth 8 PM Dennis-Yarmouth High School
Despite a small chance of a shower or thunderstorm between 2-8 pm on Friday, by the time the Northbridge and Worcester festivities kickoff temperatures will be in the low 70’s and scattered clouds will dot the skyline alongside the fireworks.  Winds will be West North West at around 10 mph.   If staying out late Friday night, keep a jacket handy as clearing skies will enable temperatures to dip to 61.
Saturday July 2 Spencer 9 PM Zukas Hilltop Auburn 930 PM Lamanski Park Methuen 930 PM Nic…

Showers/T-storms Tonight & Tomorrow, First Tropical Storm of Season forms

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A line of showers and thunderstorms is pushing through Central New York right now.  This line has prompted three severe thunderstorm warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.  Although I don't expect the line to be severe tonight, a strong thunderstorm with frequent lightning and heavy downpours is likely so shut the windows in your cars tonight.  Up to a tenth of an inch of rain may fall from these in a short period of time.  Northern Worcester County  has the highest chance of seeing a severe storm tonight.

Tomorrow will be a day of clearing, as left over showers and thunderstorms should be out of the area by 10 am. Dew points will be falling as the day progresses so it will feel better.  Thursday and Friday will be warm, but comfortable before things warm up just in time for the 4th.  More detailed 4th forecast tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Arlene has formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico today, becoming the first named Tropical Storm of the 2011 Atlantic Season.  I ha…

Humid Weather Tomorrow

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Although tonight will be a nice night, humid air returns tomorrow as dew points rise into the mid 60's.  See post here for explanation of dew points and humidity.  A dew point in the low to mid 60's will be felt by most people, but the elderly and young children are the ones who will be made most uncomfortable by the humidity.  The day will be pleasant, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 80's. Tomorrow night will be a muggy night as clouds increase.  Temperatures fall to the mid 60's but showers and thunderstorms will hold off until around 4 or 5 AM Wednesday morning.

Wednesday will feature a bout of rain early in the morning and then another band of showers and thunderstorms will move through later Wednesday.  Isolated showers may break out at any time between the two main threats.  Temperatures will be warm, reaching the upper 70's and low 80's.  Low 80's in southern Connecticut, 80 in central Massachusetts and upper 70's North Shore…

The Tuck Rule Game; The Snowfall and Call that launched a Dynasty

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The NFL is my favorite sports league.  This lockout has been getting on my nerves and I need my NFL fix.  What better way than to talk about January 19, 2002?  Up until this point winter 2001-02 was off to a slow start.  Temperatures climbed into the mid 70's in early December that year.   Snowfall was non existent across Southern New England for much of the season.  But as the New England Patriots were planning to take on the Oakland Raiders in the final game at Foxboro Stadium, an area of low pressure tracked to south of New England, drawing down cold arctic air and blanketing the region with snowfall.  The game took place on a Saturday Night and a national TV audience watched one of the greatest, most controversial games in NFL history in a heavy snowfall.  From the snow to the Tuck Rule play to Adam Vinatieri's 45 yard kick, this game had it all except for Oakland Raiders fans.


Oakland was the 3 seed as the AFC West champion, while the Patriots were the 2 seed as the AFC …

Good Looking Week Ahead

The weather funk of last week has been broken.  The upper level low pressure center and associated fronts moved by over the weekend with a nasty little thunderstorm on Saturday night.  It put some graduation party celebrations on hold for a bit but at least the dreary dull gray weather has passed.  Today will be party cloudy and warm.  Temperatures around the region are in the low to mid 80's.  Mid 80's in CT, say 85 in Hartford while southern Worcester County sees a high of 83.  Cooler in Boston with a high of 80, but 84 in Lowell and areas north and west of the city.  There is a slight chance of a light rain shower this afternoon (20 %).

Tonight is clear, lows drop to lower 60's leading into a beautiful Tuesday.  Mostly sunny with a high of 85 for most of the region.  Boston will have a high of 82,  Hartford will have a high of 87, and Providence a high of 83. Winds will be light, blowing from the south at 5 mph.  By Tuesday night a front will be approaching that will se…

Friday Night Forecast

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Dress like it's fall or early spring tonight.  Also, another batch of heavy rain is set to move into the region between 10 and midnight.  Temperatures hover in the low 60's and upper 50's, so an umbrella and a jacket will be needed if you are heading out tonight.  Similar weather tomorrow, but we will be warmer and much more likely to see a thunderstorm.  On Sunday the clearing begins.  Although theres a chance of rain mid week, most of next week looks good and beach weather will be returning.


On the tropical front, the first Tropical Depression of the season may form in the Gulf of Mexico next week.  No threat to New England, but if it does form and become a Tropical Storm its name will be Arlene.  Sunday beach forecast will be up tomorrow.  Have a great night.

Unsettled through Saturday

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Today will be an interesting weather day.  This morning the weather is calm as dew point's have dropped into the upper 50's.  The reason you hear meteorologists talk about dew point's is because that is the temperature a parcel of air must cool to in order to condense into water droplet's.  A dew point of 70 is oppressive; we only get dew points in the 70's a few times a year in New England.  Anything in the 50's is considered comfortable.  Some people with sensitive skin and other condition's related to dry air become uncomfortable when dew points drop too low, say below 50.  Another way to think of the dew point is the amount of moisture the air can hold.  If the air has too much moisture, our sweat will not evaporate.  When people fall victim to heat stroke it is because the body's natural cooling system (sweating) shuts down.



Back to the weather.  The warm front boundary is stalled south of New England.  Advancing low pressure in the Great Lakes wil…

Thursday Morning Update 6/23

No rain falling as people head out for the day, but showers and thunderstorm's are popping up all over upstate New York and those will be moving into our area.  Temperatures in MA are in the 60's and will hold there, while temperatures in CT and RI will get into the 70's today.  I'm more concerned about severe weather in this part of New England where it will be possible.  Severe weather consists of damaging winds and hail.  Dew points remain in the mid 60's so it's going to be humid once again.  No need for a jacket today, just a rain coat or umbrella.  If you've got a tee time hopefully it's early.  The greens will be soaked after the overnight rain, but hey at least you'll be able to play.

Thirsty Thursdee forecast, weekend outlook and more later.  Have a great day

Clouds and rain tonight/tomorrow

Rain will continue off and on through the night, but it will let up for the morning.  This break will be short lived as another pulse of energy will drop moderate to heavy rain again tomorrow afternoon/late morning into tomorrow evening.  Temperatures will remain constant, staying in the mid 60s all day.   Dewpoints will be in the 60's so despite the cool temperatures it will still feel muggy out there.  Thunderstorm's are possible in the afternoon but severe potential is low.  Between now (930 pm EDT Wed night) and tomorrow at this time, over an inch of rain will have fallen across much of the area.

Friday looks unsettled as well, but not as brutal as tomorrow will be.  Temperatures remain in the upper 60's. Gradual clearing Saturday and more clearing on Sunday as the beginning of next week is shaping up to be very nice.  The long range forecast is showing signs that a ridge of high pressure (sinking air heats up as its compressed towards the surface) will build in and th…

Happy Summer Solstice; Tomorrow's weather, PLUS Summer preview

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Today is the first official day of summer.  It started at 5:17 PM and today will be the most sunshine we get in a single day all year.  The sun is at its highest position in the sky today outside of the tropics.  The tropics spread from the Tropic of Cancer in the Northern Hemisphere to the Tropic of Capricorn in the Southern Hemisphere.  What makes the summer solstice is the day in which the Earth's axial tilt is greatest towards the sun. 


 So what's the summer looking like?  Unsettled, I would say is the best guess.  I do not believe the summer will be a nice as 2010, but I believe it will be better than the waterlogged 2009 summer.  The long range forecast is pointing towards a substantial warm up for early July, but I don't expect that to be the norm.  There may be stretches where showers and thunderstorm's are possible everyday.  Does that mean you see one everyday? No it doesn't and even you do it won't be an all day affair.  Overall an average New England…

Tuesday Extended Forecast

Today is the best day of the week, by a landslide.  Sunny with a high of 83 was my forecast for today going back to Sunday night and I'm not going to touch that.  For folks in Connecticut there is an outside chance at shower this afternoon but otherwise it may approach 85 in the Hartford area.  Temperature's at the South Rhode Island coast will 6-8 degree's cooler than area's inland so be aware of that as you head to the beach.  In the city of Boston itself high of 80 degrees.  The North shore and the south shore will see highs in the upper 70's.  Winds will be out of the south.

Temperatures drop to 60 overnight and Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and or a thunderstorm.  Highs fall to the mid 70's inland and low 70's at the coast.  The pattern stays unsettled as a warm front boundary if trying to lift into the area.  A vigorous upper level low pressure system that produced severe weather including tornadoes in the midwest…

A recap of strongest Hurricane to ever hit New England

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Believe it or not, the Great Hurricane of 1938 was not the strongest Hurricane on record to hit the northeast.  A powerful cyclone in August of 1635 has that distinction.  The storm originally was believed to have been a category 3 hurricane at landfall (winds between 111-130 mph) but its a popular topic in forum's and many believe the storm was at least a category 4 hurricane (131-155 mph) when it roared ashore.  The central pressure of the hurricane read 938 mb (27.7 inches of mercury (Hg)).  The exact track is uncertain, but reports from Jamestown , Virginia indicate severe damage as the storm passed close by the colony.  The storm raced North and slightly east, crossing Long Island and then striking the south New England coast.  The eye of the Hurricane exited the New England coast between Boston and Plymouth before affecting Atlantic Canada.

This is the track of the Great Hurricane of 1944.  The great Colonial Hurricane is believed to have taken a similar path.

Damage across R…

Back to work Forecast

First and foremost Happy Father's Day to all you fathers out there and especially to my father.  From pee wee soccer to little league and all the way up my father has had a great influence on not only my life but my sports life and has always been interested in my take on the weather.  Dad thank you, I know the Bruins winning the cup was something you've waited a long for.  
The Bruins parade was incredible on Saturday.  A day I won't soon forget for many reason's.  The weather in Boston was perfect, except for the sauna in a packed Red Line train.  That was a setback.  The weather stays great for next two days.  Sunny, with the normal afternoon summer clouds and a high of 83.  Any win that blows will be light, but from the west.  Stepping out in the morning you may need a light jacket as low's tonight will dip to 53.  Ditto weather on Tuessday, but the low will be around 58, so you may not even need a jacket tomorrow morning.  
Shower's may creep into the region…

Thunderstorms on the move; Parade weather

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Good news first- tomorrow's parade weather looks good.  Left over showers from tonight's rain (more on that below) will be exiting and by 9 am it's offshore.  Fog will burn off and temperatures will climb to 80 degrees.  Saturday night will be clear with low's dropping only to the low to mid 60's.  This will lead to a beautiful Sunday Funday with high temperatures in the mid 80's.  Red Sox will have no weather related concerns after tonight, so expect them to hit the ball over the park this weekend.
On to the rest of today.  Slow moving thunderstorm's have dumped enough rain over western Connecticut and Massachusetts to prompt flash flood advisories.  A line of thunderstorms, some severe has set up in advance of the cold front with the line extending roughly from Albany to Philadelphia.  The line bows out to the west of Hartford meaning there's a chance for some gusty winds in the central Connecticut area, so heads up Mike.  If you need to travel 91 in t…

What does the latest NASA sunspot projection mean for Massachusetts?

Perhaps you have heard about NASA's major announcement regarding the sunspot cycle.    The press release from National Geographic is here.  A detailed scientific explanation courtesy of NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab and Anthony Watt's climate blog Watts Up With That? can be found here.  Keep in mind this research is preliminary, but it is peer-reviewed and there are three major signals that are leading scientists at NASA to believe that our Sun will be going into a hibernation that could last decades.   The sun (and this was first understood by scientists in the early 1600's) often features dark spots that are known as sunspots.  These sunspots vary over time but most all follow a 11 year cycle.  These sunspots start at the sun's north pole and make their way to the south pole which takes 11 years.  It takes 22 years for the cycle to be fully complete.  Physically sunspots are area's of cool (relative to surrounding Sun) dark matter on the sun's surface that ha…

Friday Rainout and Red Sox forecast

Don't be fooled by the sun.  A large batch of showers and thunderstorms in advance of a cold front and upper level low pressure area.  The heaviest of the rains may miss Boston, but central Massachusetts is in line for some healthy downpours especially if you are in a region that stuck under an embedded thunderstorm.  The path and direction of these storms is southwest to northeast.  With the sun shining out ahead of the system some enhancement of thunderstorms is not out of the question.  I'm more concerned with that later this afternoon.  The set up isn't all that favorable for severe weather but as the system moves to the northeast we may increase our odds of a severe t-storm or two. Temperatures today in the mid 70's, call it 75.

The Red Sox return to Boston tonight to resume interleague play.  The Brew Crew come to town.  However tonight doesn't improve as lingering showers and thunderstorms will make it unsettled.  The low will drop to 60, so bring a rain jac…

Thirsty Thursday Forecast

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Sorry for a late post today.  I had to sleep in this morning, I couldn't turn off the coverage.  4 teams, 7 titles now. Absolutely spoiled, Boston is title town and of course Northbridge has always been title town.  By the way no other city has more than 3 titles since 2001.  Boston has two times more than any city.   Well on to the celebration forecast...a parade forecast will come out tonight and it will be updated tomorrow.

The rest of the afternoon is nice, warm with low humidity.  Tonight is nice as well, unless you're staying out until 4  am the weather will be fine.  If you're going to Boston the low tonight will be 65 so you may need a long sleeve shirt but shorts and tee shirt will fine especially if you plan on having some adult beverages.  Lows in the valley will drop a bit more as we lose more heat at night than the concrete jungle, I'm going with 60 but the coldest spots may drop to 56.

Tomorrow will be unsettled with showers and thunderstorms.  Some of y…

Bruins forecast besides a Wild celebration in Boston

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Well here we go boys and girls.  The biggest Bruins game since Game 6 of the 1972 Finals.  Can you believe that even though they have made the cup 5 other times since 1972 this is the first time the Bruins have had a shot to clinch?  Go figure its a Game 7.  Without further ado, the weather for everyone heading into the city tonight.
The beautiful afternoon will give way to an even better night.  An east wind is keeping temperatures below average for June 15.  However lows won't dip as far as they did last night because that east wind is going bye bye, to be replaced by the warm west wind.  High pressure is building in for tomorrow and this will set the stage for a great day tomorrow.  I think I'm going to have to update the bikini values for several locales.  Anyway the low will drop to 60 so some folks may need a long sleeve shirt but its not jacket weather.  The skies remain mainly clear with just a few wispy clouds.

Currently the garden looks like this.  Add 2011 after tonig…

Wednesday Morning Update

No change for today's forecast.  A very nice, low humidity, warm day.  Highs may reach the upper 70's in the Valley's.  Tomorrow is looking nicer and nicer, high of 85 as the winds switch from the North to the West.  Humidity will not be a problem, dew points in the mid 50's will make Thursday one of the best days of June so far.


Introducing Thursday's Bikini Index
North Shore- Bikini Index- 5 Clear skies, but cooler temperatures hovering around 70

Hampton Beach- Bikini Index-7 77 degress and clear skies

Plymouth/South Shore- Bikini Index 7.5 Highs near 80 make the South Shore possibly the best beach weather in Southern New England tomorrow


Cape and Islands- Bikini Index 6.5 A high around 74.  


South RI coast- Bikini Index 7.5 Also with highs around 80, the South RI coast is your other best bet for beach weather tomorrow.  


 Rain will begin to move in overnight Thursday so if you're out getting thirsty, be aware that when you leave you may be getting wet.  Friday …

Wednesday

When you're heading out tomorrow temperatures will be holding in the upper 50's.  Partly cloudy conditions will be clearing and by the drive home in the afternoon will be beautiful.  High temperature of 72 in Worcester, 75 in the Blackstone Valley, and 76 in the North county region.  Winds from the north will gust from 10-15 mph. Dewpoints will range in the upper 40's to about 50 meaning very comfortable conditions.  Enjoy this before summer's humidity and heat return.

An extended forecast will be available tomorrow morning around 630.  Have a great night

Tuesday Update

The rest of the afternoon and evening will be ok just unseasonably cool. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes is going to send fair weather our way that will last until Friday.  Sunday looks to be the pick of the weekend right now, if you plan on golfing the best day will be Sunday.  Friday and Saturday will be unsettled, but at least temperatures will climb into the 70's.

Enjoy tomorrow and Thursday!

The Sutton-Northbridge-Mendon Tornado of 1953

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(This post was created in 2011 but runs each year on June 9 to remind residents of the Blackstone Valley what can happen when conditions for severe weather are perfect- Zack Green)

It was 58 years ago this month that a large and devastating tornado struck Worcester, MA.  A complex of storms moved east into New England on June 9, 1953 after dropping an F5 tornado on Flint, Michigan that killed 116 people.  That was the most people killed in a tornado until the catastrophic F5 tornado that destroyed Joplin, MO last month.  The Worcester tornado ripped through the Burncoat neighborhood of Worcester and produced extreme damage.  Though it was classified as an F4, on the new enhanced tornado Fujita scale it would likely have been an EF-5.  Regardless, 94 people were killed in Worcester as their was literally no warning.  The storm struck just as people were returning home from work.  The combination of the Flint-Worcester tornadoes lead to the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK to chang…

Cool and Partly Crappy Tuesday; Warmth returns this weekend

Today's weather belongs in March or November.  As of this posting (640 am) showers were beginning to work south from New Hampshire, just now getting close to route 2.  Flood advisories have been issued due to the slow moving nature of these rain showers so if you get stuck in one be aware some low lying areas prone to flash flooding may be under water.  Dreary, overcast, and off and on showers will make today gray, but at least the Bruins won last night.  The high for the Worcester county area is 58 today with lows dropping into the upper 40's tonight.

The weather clears by noon tomorrow and it will be a nice day, high of 76 with mostly sunny conditions.  Thursday is a great day, a bikini day with high temperatures reaching the low 80's inland.  Cape Cod and Islands look for highs in the low to mid 70's, the south Rhode Island coast you're going to see highs in the upper 70's.  Meanwhile up on the North Shore Gloucester will see an east wind so the highs will …

Bruins forecast besides a Beatdown of the Canucks

Bruins forecast
Going to be in Boston for the game tonight? The good news is you should remain dry but temperatures will only be in the 50's.  The won't drop too much from the beginning of the game until the end of it, so whatever's comfortable when you head out should do when it's time to go home.  The drive home you may see a few sprinkles or a shower but the city itself stays dry.
The Bruins will dominate this game, start to finish and force a game 7.  Bruins 5-1 Krejci and Lucic will erupt and Thomas saves 35 shots

Thunderstorm/Tornado damage video

The first video is a storm in the Lawrence/Methuen area of MA.  The second video was taken by a friend of mine Kris Vogt and is footage of the destructive June 1 tornado.

Monday Update

The sun will peak through from time to time, some of us will have a great afternoon.  Sunshine could make some things unstable going into this evening, but all in all pretty good day.  Temps 65-70.  Go Rams!

2011 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

I presented my 2011 North Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast at the 2011 Umass-Lowell student research symposium on April 25, 2011.  My forecast calls for 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes.  That would mean less named storms and less hurricanes than 2010,  but more major hurricanes.  I also predict 3 to 5 hurricane landfalls in the United States.  Realizing this is a bold claim, here is why I believe in a high impact Hurricane season.

Analog's


First and foremost, what is an analog?  An analog is a past year with similar conditions to 2011.  I have identified  seven analog year's, 1950, 1955, 1985, 1989, 1996, 1999, and 2008.  These years, like 2011, featured a weakening La Nina.  La Nina occurs when the waters of the central Pacific Ocean cool a few degree's below average.  2010 featured a strengthening La Nina, just like 1949, 1954, 1984, 1988, 1995, 1998, and 2007.  2009 was an El Nino year, which is the warming of the equatorial Pacific waters (opposi…

Monday Weather

Worcester County
Not the greatest of Monday's.  The temperatures will not rise much above 65 and there is a chance of some light  rain showers.  Bring an umbrella if you're heading to the baseball district championships today.  The gray skies will keep low's tonight in the lower 50's.

Tomorrow will be downright dreary.  Gray skies with the threat of showers will be the rule, not the exception and high temperatures will be hard-pressed to reach 60.

The 70's will return for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.  The early look on the weekend is warm, upper 70's and low 80's with plenty of sunshine for those outdoor activities.

Welcome

Good morning everyone, Happy Monday.  My goal for this blog to provide daily forecast's for Worcester County and to analyze what's going on and why.  I'll also try my hand at longer range seasonal forecasting.  My big interests are hurricanes and winter weather and I will try to get out in front of potential events as soon as possible so people can prepare.  I use the past to try to predict the future because I believe weather pattern's repeat themselves so you will often find historical references to put things in perspective.  Leave comments for suggestions, likes, and dislikes.  I'm a meteorologist, I can take the heat!  I hope you enjoy the blog