Showers/T-storms Tonight & Tomorrow, First Tropical Storm of Season forms

A line of showers and thunderstorms is pushing through Central New York right now.  This line has prompted three severe thunderstorm warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.  Although I don't expect the line to be severe tonight, a strong thunderstorm with frequent lightning and heavy downpours is likely so shut the windows in your cars tonight.  Up to a tenth of an inch of rain may fall from these in a short period of time.  Northern Worcester County  has the highest chance of seeing a severe storm tonight.

Tomorrow will be a day of clearing, as left over showers and thunderstorms should be out of the area by 10 am. Dew points will be falling as the day progresses so it will feel better.  Thursday and Friday will be warm, but comfortable before things warm up just in time for the 4th.  More detailed 4th forecast tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Arlene has formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico today, becoming the first named Tropical Storm of the 2011 Atlantic Season.  I have 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes for the season and one tropical storm formed in June in 2008, 1999, and 1996, my last 3 analog years.  Anyway nothing has made my thinking change about the upcoming season and I will be here to keep you on alert.
Its not terribly well organized, but if it can consolidate its thunderstorm action it has a chance to develop in to a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane before moving onshore in Mexico. Tropical storm warnings posted for Mexican coast

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