|Tree, Utility damage in Methuen, MA (image credit Boston Globe)|
|Emery Street, Methuen, MA (image credit Morgan Murphy/CBS Boston)|
|5/28/2015 SPC preliminary storm reports|
|2 m temps 10 am (image weatherbell)|
|WPC Surface analysis 8 am|
|12z NAM 500 mb vorticity 8 am (image NCEP)|
By later this evening the high will slide offshore and the front from the Midwest will slowly move east. Dew points will rise into the 60's again tomorrow, but not before a nice evening in which temperatures will not drop out of the 60's in Southern New England. Up north temperatures will fall into the 50's.
|WPC surface forecast 8 PM tonight|
|SPC Day 2 (Saturday) Thunderstorm outlook|
Saturday night is fine as any convection should die down as we lose the heating of the day. Sunday looks to be unsettled region wide. While not anticipating a total washout the threat of rain will linger all day and into Sunday night. Temperatures are around 70 (will get warmer with any breaks of sun) and dew points in upper 50's/low 60's.
GENERAL WEATHER THOUGHTS
As you may have noticed much of Southern New England is experiencing a moderate drought. Some have asked how is this possible after all the snow this winter?! The answer is that we didn't receive as much precipitation as you might think. Since it was so cold the snowfall ratio's were on the order of 20-25-1. That means for every 1 inch of precipitation we got 20-25 inches of snow. Normally we see a 10-1 ratio.
|US Drought monitor, released 5/28/2015 (NOAA)|
|24 hour observed rainfall (AHPS precipitation analysis)|
|CPC seasonal drought outlook (NOAA)|
|NOAA, Colorado State, and Weather Channel predictions (image Weather Channel twitter)|
|OSPO Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly 5.28.15|
|OSPO Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly 5.30.2013|
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
It means that we are looking at a warm dry summer! That's what the odds say. Every El Nino behaves differently. A particular interest of mine in college was how El Nino and La Nina's behave. In 2009
the Pacific was also bringing on an El Nino event. The summer of 09 was horrible in New England; rain and cool. The oceans and atmosphere are different this time around so if you work in an industry that is dependent on water be aware that this will likely get worse before it gets better.
Have a good weekend and thanks for reading