UPDATE 12 PM- Severe Thunderstorms Possible Today

 As anticipated, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK (SPC) has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for most of New England (and parts of NY, NJ)

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233, valid uptil 7 PM EST

 The Southern New England radar is quiet for now

NWS Boston radar 1130 am

But to the northwest storm coverage is increasing.  Nothing is severe...yet

NWS Burlington radar 1202 pm

With temperatures expected to max in the mid to upper 80s and clear skies

GOES-EAST visible satellite 1115 am (NOAA)

I feel scattered thunderstorms will develop.  Boston-Worcester-Hartford north and west has the greatest chance to see a severe storm, though the Blackstone Valley and Eastern CT are not out of the woods.  Keep an eye on weather.gov/box or NWSBoston on twitter for severe thunderstorm warnings.  Facebook is not reliable during severe weather.

-Zack

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW


Welcome back to the blog.  A severe thunderstorm watch was issued for the northwestern half of New England yesterday.  The primary hazard was wind and this verified

5/27/15 preliminary storm reports

Offshore high pressure has introduced a southwesterly wind in Southern New England.  With this comes warm and humid temperatures.  Dew points are already in the mid 60's

11z HRRR 2 m dew points valid 8 am (image weatherbell)

All our atmosphere needs is a trigger with heat and humidity already in place.  As we look at the surface chart we see our trigger moving through the Great Lakes

WPC 5 am surface analysis

This is not the main front but rather a trough in the upper air pattern.

06z NAM 500 mb vorticity valid 11 am (image NCEP)

This mean that we will stay in the warm in muggy pattern until the main cold front can sweep through the area Sunday or Monday.  Today highs will climb into the mid 80's

11z HRRR 2 m temps 2 PM (image weatherbell)

The storm prediction center (SPC) has most of New England at risk for severe thunderstorms.Yellow indicates scattered severe storms possible, green indicates isolated severe storms possible.

SPC day 1 severe weather outlook

The greatest threat other than heavy downpours and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will be the possibility of wind damage

SPC day 1 severe wind outlook

Small hail will be possible in the strongest cells.  Storms will fire around 12-1 PM out west and to the north.  They will move east throughout the afternoon most likely screwing up the evening commute.

11z HRRR simulated radar coverage 1 PM (image weatherbell)

By 4 PM solid coverage from Maine to SW CT is likely

11z HRRR simulated radar coverage 4 PM (image weatherbell)

I will update this post when any severe weather watches are posted.

-Zack