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Showing posts from May, 2013

Sizzling Friday

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Most areas topped out in the upper 80's yesterday although isolated pockets reached 90.  Today the majority of the region will reach 90.  A few pop up showers/thunderstorms are possible, but odds are very low.  My best bet is NW CT and the Berkshires.  There is no relief on Saturday as temperatures region wide will be near 90.  Sunday a front begins to approach from the west but will not quite reach New England until Monday.

Observations
It is a warm start this morning.  Here are the temperatures as of 4 am
The surface analysis  At the 500 mb level we have a strong upper level low pressure center over the Dakota's and a sharp ride in the east.  That sets up 90 degree weather in New England an a strong thunderstorm threat in the heartland.
This is as of 2 PM.  Here is the SPC thunderstorm outlook for the day This pattern is not great for the folks in Oklahoma, but that is one of the hazards of living in that region of the country.  The green indicates any type of thunderstorm i…

Hot and Humid Thursday

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Temperatures near 90 and dew points in the mid 60's will give the region its first true summer air mass.  Thunderstorms last night announced the arrival of this air mass which is somewhat unusual as the majority of the time strong thunderstorms signal relief to heat.  Take a look at the radar image I saved from last night
The storm dropped between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain  Wind damage was also common across Western MA The boundary has lifted North through New England as the upper level shortwave has passed.  Here is the surface chart Temperatures as of 5 am were in the low 60's across Southern New England Temperatures will be in the 70's by 9 am and low 80's by lunch.  Some will hit 90 this afternoon, others will be close.  With dew points in the 60's it will feel like 90 regardless Ridging is present at the 500 mb level A pop up shower or thunderstorm will be possible today.  There isn't a true trigger for thunderstorms like a front or a trough but with an a…

Severe Threat Continues- UPDATE 717 PM

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UPDATE-
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for Northeast CT, SW NH, and all of MA from Worcester County West.  
A strong line of thunderstorms is moving through upstate New York.  Many locations are under severe thunderstorms warnings and several are under tornado warnings. Tornado warnings are in red, severe thunderstorm warnings in yellow.  This is a dangerous line of thunderstorms that should hold together as they march into Western and Central MA, and NE CT.   There is still energy available in SW New England The energy is forecast to stay in place and a nasty batch of thunderstorms may strengthen as it enters Western MA.  This will have the potential to knock downs trees and power lines with wind gusts up to 75 as the storm hits.  As it reaches Worcester County it should begin to weaken but will still pack a punch.  I expect it to enter MA by 8 PM.  It should reach central MA by 9 or 930.  Here is the high resolution short range …

Rain to Clear, Severe Thunderstorms Possible Later

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A warm front is moving northeast toward New England and ahead of this boundary moderate rainfall is falling in portions of Southern New England.  This afternoon the boundary lifts into Northern New England and if enough sun breaks out then severe thunderstorms will break out.  A ridge is building in the east so temperatures will be on the rise for the next several days.

Observations/Short Range Forecast
A decaying band of showers is located in Eastern MA and Northern RI
This complex will be offshore by 8 am.  Temperatures this morning Most areas are in the mid to upper 50's.  By 8 am the warm front is on the doorstep of SW CT At noon all of Southern New England is into the 70's Dew points will also be on the increase, first in CT then into MA and Northern RI.  At noon dew points are in the low to mid 60's.  The dew points will continue to increase as the warm front surges north.  At 2 PM A wave of low pressure in Canada with an associated surface trough will act as the &quo…

Dry Tuesday, Warm Up for End of Week

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After a pleasant and dry Tuesday a warm front will lift through Southern New England tonight and Wednesday.  There will be a threat of showers and thunderstorms tonight and the potential for some severe weather tomorrow.  By Thursday high temperatures will be soaring into the upper 80's/low 90's and these temperatures will last through the weekend.

Observations/Short Term Forecast
It is a chilly start this morning with temperatures in the mid 40's
High pressure is in control in New England.  This will depart the east coast this afternoon A shortwave at the 500 mb level and a building ridge will force the warm front to the northeast today.  Already there is heavy precipitation along the warm front That will keep temperatures down in the NY/PA area this afternoon Clouds will be increasing in New England this afternoon as the system approaches.  It seems like some of this will hold together tonight and there could be a rumble of thunder especially in W MA/CT.  Temperatures wi…