Weekend Weather Take 5/25/13

A stalled low off the Eastern New England coast and strong high pressure over the Great Lakes/Canada are contributing to a miserable Saturday.  The highest elevations of Northern New England will see snow today/tonight, perhaps over 6 inches in some spots.  There could be more but honestly I am not familiar with late May mountain snows so this will be a educational storm in that regard.  Sunday is less wet and will start out overcast.  However as the low pulls away sunshine will break out from south to north.  Monday is the pick of the long weekend.  Temperatures look to return to the 80's towards the middle of next week.

Observations
Here is the northeast sea level pressure and radar, from the SPC mesoscale page
14z SPC Northeast mesoanalysis 
The zoomed in Southern New England radar shows much of the action is west of Rt. 146 into Western MA and NW CT
NWS Boston Radar 1035 am
These are the same regions that have been peppered with rain all week.  Here is the storm total from Thursday 3 am to Saturday 1020 am
NWS Boston radar estimate precipitation totals
We can see the low, the cold front, and the high pressure all contributing to this rain on the national surface analysis
WPC surface analysis 930 am
That is why the regional temperatures are in the 40's on MAY 25!!
2 m temps 9 am (image weatherbell)
Short Term Forecast
The coastal low is going to take its sweet time pulling away as a strong ridge is present over the North Atlantic Ocean.  So for today lets call high temperatures in the low 50's in Eastern MA, RI and Cape Cod.  From 495/95 west temperatures will be in the mid 40s (includes CT).  In NW Worcester County and the Berkshires temps will be right around 40.
12z NAM hires 2 m temps 3 pm (image weatherbell)
The entire afternoon will be gray with on/off rain.  Some bands will be moderate, others just light.  Tonight temperatures drop into the mid 30's.  A closed low at the mid levels of the atmosphere is driving this (and will lead to snow)
00z EURO 500 mb height anomaly Sat 8 pm (image weatherbell)
Elevations above 2000 ft will see snow.  This is certainly rare for Memorial Day weekend.  Sunday starts overcast but breaks of sun will occur from South to North starting around 8 am in CT and the Connecticut River Valley.  Northeast MA will struggle to kick out the clouds.  Areas that break into sunshine will jump into the upper 50s/low 60s.
12z NAM hires 2 m temp Sun 4 pm (image weatherbell)
Temperatures drop to the low to mid 40's on Sunday night.  For those attending services Monday morning it will be sunny, yet it will be chilly.  Temps at 8 am will be in the low 50s
12z NAM hires 2 m temps Mon 8 am (image weatherbell)
High pressure will slowly be building towards the coast and in position to advect warm air back into New England
WPC surface forecast Monday 8 am
We won't quite get there Monday, but with temperatures in the mid to upper 60's it will be a very nice late spring day
12z NAM hires 2 m temps Mon 2 PM (image weatherbell)
I'm sure several areas hit 70 on Monday.  Most likely in CT or the CT River Valley of MA (Springfield, Chicopee etc).

Medium Range Outlook
Tuesday and Wednesday both are similar.  High pressure will build offshore on Tuesday allowing temperatures to rise into the low 70's.  Tuesday will be dry
WPC surface forecast Tuesday 
That warm front will lift across the region on Wednesday bringing with it scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Temperatures will be in the low 70's, but once the warm front lifts north temperatures return to the 80's.  This likely will not happen until Thursday
00z EURO precip Wed 2 pm (image weatherbell)
Long Range
A ridge will build in the east and widespread 80's are likely across Southern New England into next weekend.  The CPC 6-10 outlook is onboard
CPC 6-10 day temperature outlook
Anytime we get hot weather in New England we need to be alert for severe weather.  However once we get through tomorrow things will warm up.

Weather News of the Week
The dominant story of the week occurred in Moore, OK on Monday.  A catastrophic EF-5 killed 24, injured hundreds and created a swath of damage over a mile wide.  Damage will approach $2 billion dollars.

Images CNN, Moore tornado
There are staggering images all over the internet.  Unfortunately we are returning to a climate that is favorable for strong violent tornadoes.  Tornadoes, on a general level, feed off the temperature clash between the warm moist Gulf of Mexico and the cool dry Canadian air.  Throw in a strong unstable jet stream that is common in the spring and tornadoes are formed.  The 1950's began an active tornado period that lasted through the 1970's
NOAA/SPC strong tornado climo 1954-2012
2011 was a deadly year reminiscent of 1953 and 1974.  1953 isn't listed on here, but multiple violent tornadoes combined to kill hundreds of Americans from Texas to Michigan to Massachusetts.  

The second major story was the fact that NOAA released its annual Hurricane Season forecast.  Its not so much a forecast as it is a blend of averages.  They predict 13-20 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes, 3-6 major hurricanes and an ACE index 105-210% of average.  Basically its a blend of a non el nino warm AMO.  13-7-3 is a typical warm AMO.  20-11-6 is what I find more likely to happen based on the Sea Surface temperature pattern and the fact that a ENSO cold biased neutral is developing in the Pacific.  
5.23.13 NOAA sea surface temp anomaly
What does this mean? In recent years Hurricane activity has ramped up along the east coast.  Again this is similar to the 1950's 
US Major Hurricane Landfall 1950's
This only counts MAJOR hurricanes, category 3 or higher.  The US has not been hit by a major hurricane since Wilma in 05.  Granted Ike was close and Sandy was a monster and they leveled the coastlines they impacted.  However if Sandy were a true major hurricane devastating structural damage would have occurred much further inland.  

So now we see Hurricanes and Tornadoes displaying similar patterns to the 1950's just like the ocean's.  This past spring set many records for cold and snow that last occurred in the 1950's.  Is climate change really man driven or is it driven by changes in the oceans?

















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