Friday, May 24, 2013

Ugly Saturday, Improvement Sun-Mon

I apologize for not posting last night as my prediction about Freshman baseball cam true- 3.5 hour marathon.  Onto the discussion

Observations/Short Range Forecast
A pair of cold fronts with surface lows are approaching the east coast as High pressure digs into the Central US
WPC Surface Analysis 330 am
The cold front is evident in the temperature chart as it is in the 60's across much of New England.  Enjoy it as for some of us the high temperature will occur this morning
2 m temps 5 am (image weatherbell)
The radar is active, although a dry slot is present across much of Central Southern New England
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 618 am
More showers will develop and work inland as the low pushes towards the coast.  Flash flooding will be an issue in Western MA and CT.  Look at the radar estimated rainfall from yesterday
NWS Boston storm total estimate 5/23/13
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is forecasting another 0.25-0.50 inches of rain today alone
WPC Day 1 precip forecast
By 2 PM the cold front and surface wave should be near Worcester.  Here is the projected surface chart
WPC surface forecast Friday 2 PM
Temperatures will look like this- its easy to see the cold front
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 PM (image weatherbell)
The high pressure in the Midwest will be escorting an abnormally cold airmass into the Northeast for Saturday-Sunday. Tonight temperatures will drop into the 40's.  There will be a few breaks of rain throughout the night but it will be unsettled.  Tomorrow morning the front and low pressure stall off the MA coast.  This will send waves of cold rain into New England
WPC surface forecast Saturday 8 am
High temperatures will be in the 40's
06z NAM hires 2 m temp 2 PM Sat (image weatherbell)
The WPC likes an additional 0.25-0.50 tomorrow
WPC Day 2 precipitation
The surface chart on Saturday Night
WPC Surface Forecast 8 PM Sat 
This is largely driven by a strong upper level low at the 500 mb level
00z EURO 500 mb heights Sat 8 pm (image weatherbell)
If you are heading North...several models support a significant snowfall at the higher elevations Saturday night.
06z NAM hires snow accumulation thru Sun AM (image weatherbell)
Mt. Washington observations will be fun to watch Saturday Night.  Never the less the system should clear on Sunday leaving overcast to clearing skies and temperatures in the low 60's in Western New England, Upper 50s in Eastern New England.  Monday will be in the mid to upper 60's
00z EURO 2 m temps Mon PM (image weatherbell)
Have a good Friday.

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