Friday, May 31, 2013

Sizzling Friday

Most areas topped out in the upper 80's yesterday although isolated pockets reached 90.  Today the majority of the region will reach 90.  A few pop up showers/thunderstorms are possible, but odds are very low.  My best bet is NW CT and the Berkshires.  There is no relief on Saturday as temperatures region wide will be near 90.  Sunday a front begins to approach from the west but will not quite reach New England until Monday.

It is a warm start this morning.  Here are the temperatures as of 4 am
4 am 2 m temperatures (Image weatherbell)
The surface analysis 
330 am WPC surface analysis
At the 500 mb level we have a strong upper level low pressure center over the Dakota's and a sharp ride in the east.  That sets up 90 degree weather in New England an a strong thunderstorm threat in the heartland.
06z NAM 500 mb heights 2 PM
This is as of 2 PM.  Here is the SPC thunderstorm outlook for the day
SPC Day 1 Thunderstorm Outlook
This pattern is not great for the folks in Oklahoma, but that is one of the hazards of living in that region of the country.  The green indicates any type of thunderstorm is possible.  Back in New England today will be the hottest day of 2013 (so far)
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 3 pm (image weatherbell)
Dew points will be running in the mid 60's.  Today will be humid and hot but not overly oppressive.  That said the Massachusetts Environmental Protection Department has issued an Air Quality Alert for ground level ozone so if you are sensitive to slightly unhealthy air today is a day to stay inside in an air cooled building
NWS Boston homepage, Air Quality Alert
Tonight low temperatures drop only into the upper 60's.  Some urban areas may not drop below 70.  Tomorrow morning a warm boundary will exist in the Northern portion of New England but high pressure will still be in control along the east coast.
WPC Surface Forecast 8 am Sat
There will be a slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm
SPC day 2 thunderstorm outlook
Temperatures are only slightly cooler than today
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 pm Sat (image weatherbell)
Temperatures Saturday night will fall to the mid 60's.  On Sunday a large high pressure area will push the cold front in the midwest east towards the Atlantic.  Here is the forecast surface chart Sunday morning
WPC surface forecast Sun 8 am (image weatherbell)
That cold front is pushing into a very warm and humid air mass.  Needless to say Severe Weather is possible if not likely on Sunday in NY, PA, WV and even pushing into Western MA/CT and Northern New England later Sunday/Monday morning
SPC Day 3 outlook
Temperatures Sunday
06z NAM hires 2 m temp Sun 2 pm (image weatherbell)
Western New England may be looking at an overnight severe weather outbreak.  Eastern New England will be under the gun (potentially) Monday morning with a surface set up like this
WPC surface analysis Monday AM
Here is the latest EURO for Monday morning
00z EURO precip Monday 2 PM
This front will bring relief from the heat.  I'll watch it, have a good Friday.

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