Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Dry Tuesday, Warm Up for End of Week

After a pleasant and dry Tuesday a warm front will lift through Southern New England tonight and Wednesday.  There will be a threat of showers and thunderstorms tonight and the potential for some severe weather tomorrow.  By Thursday high temperatures will be soaring into the upper 80's/low 90's and these temperatures will last through the weekend.

Observations/Short Term Forecast
It is a chilly start this morning with temperatures in the mid 40's
4 am 2 m temps (image weatherbell)
High pressure is in control in New England.  This will depart the east coast this afternoon
WPC surface analysis 330 am
A shortwave at the 500 mb level and a building ridge will force the warm front to the northeast today.  Already there is heavy precipitation along the warm front
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 548 am
That will keep temperatures down in the NY/PA area this afternoon
06z NAM hires 2 m temp 3 pm (image weatherbell)
Clouds will be increasing in New England this afternoon as the system approaches.  It seems like some of this will hold together tonight and there could be a rumble of thunder especially in W MA/CT.  Temperatures will only fall to the mid 50's tonight.  It will be warmer in urban areas. Here is the thunderstorm outlook for Wednesday
SPC day 2 thunderstorm outlook
Green represents general thunderstorm formation possible, yellow means an increased chance of severe thunderstorms.  Here is the 500 mb pattern tomorrow around 11 am. A noticeable wave will be moving over the top of the ridge
06z NAM 500 mb heights 11 am Wed (image weatherbell)
Tomorrow night the surface analysis will look like this
WPC surface forecast Wed 8 PM
Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70's.  In Western New England there is a good chance of severe weather.  In Eastern New England we will need a lot of sun to help destabilize the atmosphere
06z NAM hires 2 m temp Wed 2 pm (image weatherbell)
Dew points will be in the mid to upper 60's tomorrow
06z NAM hires 2 m dew points Wed 5 pm (image weatherbell)

On Thursday the ridge will build into the east.  A trough digs into the Plains which is looking like a classic tornado outbreak for those folks.
06z NAM 500 mb heights Thurs 11 am (image weatherbell)
Here are temperatures Thursday afternoon
06z NAM hires 2 m temp Thur 2 pm (image weatherbell)
By Friday these temps will climb in near 90.  The weekend looks warm and dry but a cold front will be approaching early next week.  So to recap

Tuesday High 75, increasing PM clouds, light winds SW 5-10 mph.  Temps drop to mid 50's overnight with showers and isolated thunder

Wednesday High 76, severe weather possible in Western MA/CT.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms for the rest of the region.  Dew points in the upper 60's.  Overnight lows in the 60's

Thursday High 87, dry and summer like.  West wind 10-15 mph

Friday High 90.  Dry, hot, humid.  Southwest Wind 8-12 mph

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