Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Severe Threat Continues- UPDATE 717 PM

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for Northeast CT, SW NH, and all of MA from Worcester County West.  
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246 (SPC)
A strong line of thunderstorms is moving through upstate New York.  Many locations are under severe thunderstorms warnings and several are under tornado warnings.
NWS Albany Radar 711 PM
Tornado warnings are in red, severe thunderstorm warnings in yellow.  This is a dangerous line of thunderstorms that should hold together as they march into Western and Central MA, and NE CT.  
There is still energy available in SW New England
The energy is forecast to stay in place and a nasty batch of thunderstorms may strengthen as it enters Western MA.  This will have the potential to knock downs trees and power lines with wind gusts up to 75 as the storm hits.  As it reaches Worcester County it should begin to weaken but will still pack a punch.  I expect it to enter MA by 8 PM.  It should reach central MA by 9 or 930.  Here is the high resolution short range HRRR model between 8-9 tonight
21z HRRR Simulated Radar
You should take in anything that may blow away.  


As of this writing no severe weather watches have been issued for New England.  I do believe this will change but I will be out this afternoon.  Here is a quick update

The sun is working into the SW corner of New England.  It extends all the way to Worcester and Providence
NOAA GOES_East Visible Sat 145 PM
The radar is quiet for now as most of the precipitation has dissipated or moved offshore
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 228 PM
Afternoon short range models continue to indicate a the potential for a squall line this evening.  Squall lines often produce dangerous lightning and damaging winds followed by heavy rain.
16z HRRR simulated radar 6 pm (ESRL)
Surface based available energy is low at the moment, but with the sun shining destabilization should increase in New England through the afternoon.  Western MA and CT will see storms fire first around 4-5 PM.  Central MA and RI will be okay until at least 6 PM.  There is a small chance a rogue super-cell could outrace the main line before hand so keep an eye to the sky.  Remember, lightning travels the path of least resistance.  If you hear thunder you can be struck by lightning.

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