Warm Temps Again, Chance of Thunderstorms

A stalled boundary across Northern Massachusetts will keep the majority of Southern New England in the warm air today.  With this there is a chance of thunderstorms later this afternoon.  The tragic tornado yesterday in Moore, OK is a reminder of the fierce power mother nature has.  It is why I try to be as blunt as possible when discussing the weather because at times people's lives depend on it.  RIP to the dead, prayers to the wounded, and my thoughts are with the entire community of Moore dealing with the aftermath of this event.

Current Conditions
Here is the surface analysis

WPC surface analysis 327 am

A batch of showers and embedded thunderstorms is moving across Northern New England associated with a weak area of low pressure.

NWS Northeast Regional Radar 548 am

Temperatures are in the low 60's 

2 m temps 4 am (image weatherbell)

When we combine forecast high temperatures in the low to mid 80's with dew points in the upper 60's there will be thunderstorms this afternoon.

Short Term Forecast

Today will be uncomfortable with the heat and humidity

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 pm (image weatherbell)

Notice how sharp the temperature gradient is from Portsmouth, NH to Boston.  Around 2 pm some storms in Western MA will be firing.  Worcester west to the MA/NY border will see the greatest chance for hail and damaging winds.  From the Storm Prediction Center

SPC severe wind probabilities Tuesday

There is a 5% chance of a damaging wind gust within 25 of a given location.  Here are the hail probs

SPC severe hail probabilities Tuesday

It will be interesting to watch the available energy this morning/early afternoon.  With any thunderstorm there will be frequent lightning, small hail, heavy downpours, and gusty winds.  The showers and thunderstorms will linger into this evening.  Temperatures will drop rapidly around 5 PM starting in NE MA as a boundary retreats from the Gulf of Maine.  Temperatures that are 85 at 3 PM will be in the 50's by 7 PM.  Temps stay around 50 for the night.  A stray shower will be possible tomorrow morning.

WPC surface forecast 8 amWed

The warm front will again lift north and temperatures Wednesday will be near 80.  While a few isolated thunderstorms are possible tomorrow there is a greater threat today and Thursday.  Here are the temperatures

06z NAM hires 2 m temp Wednesday 5 PM (image weatherbell)

Temperatures will only drop into the low 60's tomorrow night.  By Thursday morning we are looking at a surface chart similar to this

WPC surface forecast Thursday 8 am

With a set up like this it the potential for severe weather exists.  Temperatures will once again be near 80.  Speaking of severe weather there will be a Severe Weather Spotter Training class at Alternatives on Douglas Road in Northbridge, MA tonight from 7-10 PM.  The class is free with no registration and it is the only way to become certified as a NWS weather spotter.  If you go see you there!