Two More Days of Dry Weather

The extended run of dry weather is about to run its course.  There are still two days left for us to enjoy before a few bouts of rain move into the region.  We certainly could use the rain for a myriad of reasons; allergies, drought, crops, lawns etc. However lets talk about the nice weather first before getting into the precipitation.

Current Conditions/Short Range Forecast

The NWS in Taunton is warning about patchy dense fog in Eastern Massachusetts this morning.  Here is a special weather statement.  These conditions are expected to improve by 8 am.  Here is the cloud cover at 5 am

06z NAM cloud cover 5 am (image weatherbell)

These clouds are keeping temperatures a bit warmer in Southern New England

4 am 2 m temperatures (image weatherbell)

Notice how from Worcester to Springfield to Danbury and south its into the 40's.  This matches up well with the cloud cover.  The radar is quiet but we can pick up the rain from our next system in the Carolina's and Virginia.

NWS Northeast Regional Radar 528 am

By 10 am most of Southern New England is to 60 degrees.  At noon temperatures are into the upper 60's and by 3 most of SNE is into the low 70's

08z RAP 2 m temp 4 pm (image weatherbell)

The Cape once again gets shafted, but that's what happens in spring along the coast.  The sea breeze elsewhere will not be as drastic as it was over the weekend due to the wind direction.  With high pressure located here

WPC surface analysis 330 am 

Wind direction will be from the SW in Southern New England.  Due to its proximity to the high pressure system the Cape will take an Southeasterly wind this afternoon

06z NAM 10 m winds, direction (image weatherbell)

Tonight everyone falls to around 50.  The coldest spot will be the Cape and Islands who will drop into the mid 40's.  Temperatures will warm up more quickly than they do today.  In fact Tuesday is the pick of the week.  

WPC surface forecast Tuesday 8 am

The storm will continue to slowly push up the coast.  Meanwhile high temperatures should be in the mid 70's tomorrow afternoon

06z NAM hires 2 m temps Tuesday 2 pm (image weatherbell)

Temperatures do not drop much Tuesday night.  Low temps will be in the low to mid 50's.  

Wednesday-Saturday

Before the precipitation arrives Wednesday it will be warm.  The EURO likes temps in the upper 60's, the NAM hires likes them in the low 70's.  

06z NAM hires 2 m temps Wednesday 2 pm (image weatherbell)

At 2 PM the simulated radar shows convection just getting ready to move into Southwest CT

06z NAM hires simulated radar Wed 2 pm (image weatherbell)

Steadier rain moves into most of SNE between 4-7 pm

00z EURO Precip Wed 2-8 PM (image weatherbell)

Here is how much rain the WPC is expecting through Thursday at 8 am

WPC day 3 precip forecast

SW CT appears to be the rainfall jackpot on Wednesday.  However on Thursday and Friday some thunderstorms may develop as an unstable air mass is in place.  Here is Thursday morning's surface chart

WPC Day 3 surface forecast Thur 8 am

Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 60's on Thursday.  On Friday the low will have only moved a bit.  It will still be off the New England coast as a cold front approaches from the West

WPC Day 4 surface forecast Fri 8 am (image weatherbell)

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will fire  In general SNE should pick up 0.25-0.50 on Thursday/Friday combined

WPC day 4-5 QPF 

There will be locally higher amounts.  How does the weekend look?  Not good

WPC Day 6-7 QPF

This is quite a few days out but it seems likely that heavy rain falls into the weekend as a cold front slowly pushes off the coast.  I don't have timing down yet- there are signs that Saturday afternoon may be ok, but Sunday is a washout.  Here is the 7 day rainfall total

WPC 7 day precip totals

So to summarize there will be nice weather today and tomorrow.  It will start warm on Wednesday before precipitation moves in later in the afternoon.  Thursday and Friday are unsettled with periods of showers and thunderstorms.