Thursday, May 16, 2013

Mid to Upper 70's Thursday With High Fire Danger

A warm front tried to push into New England yesterday and brought with it some light rain.  The warm sector never fully made its way into New England which is why temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 70's (with some isolated 80 degree readings).  A second cold front cools the region off somewhat on Friday before temps rebound to the low 70's on Saturday.  The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Special Weather Statement due to high fire danger today.

Observations/Short Range Forecast
A mild start this morning by SNE standards
4 am 2 m temperatures (image weatherbell)
Here is the surface analysis 
WPC surface analysis 325 am
On the Northeast Radar the cold front shows up nicely as a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms
NWS Northeast Regional Radar
These will stay well south of New England.  Temperatures warm up fairly quickly this morning given the mild start.  By 10 am mostly everyone is in the mid to upper 60's.  Areas of CT will certainly be close to if not at 70 by this time.  This afternoon will be dry, windy, and warm.  First the winds

09z RAP MSLP, Max Wind Gust 4 pm (image weatherbell)
Winds will potentially gust 30-40 mph.  Relative humidity will be on the order of 20-30%
09z RAP 2 m relative humidity 4 pm (image weatherbell)
With temperatures like this
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 4 pm (image weatherbell)
Fires will spread rapidly.  The warmest areas should be the CT River Valley, Blackstone Valley, and SE MA away from the coast.  Tonight the second cold front will weaken and open up into more of a trough of low pressure but that will still drop temperatures 10 degrees or so for Friday. 
WPC surface analysis 8 pm 
Northern Worcester County, The Berkshires, and NW CT drop to the low 40' tonight.  The rest of us stay in the mid to upper 40's.  High pressure building towards the Great Lakes will kick the cold front offshore and introduce a NW wind on Friday
WPC surface forecast 8 am Friday
Afternoon temperatures are spring like
06z NAM hires 2 m temps Fri PM (image weatherbell)
Hartford looks to be close to 70, the rest of the region mid to upper 60's.  On Saturday the high will move directly over New England and will start to change the wind direction.
WPC surface forecast Saturday 8 pm
By 2 pm temperatures are near 70.  They will max around 72-73
06z NAM hires 2 m temp Sat 2 pm (image weatherbell)
On Sunday the high retreats to towards Nova Scotia so the wind becomes more Southeast.  Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday
WPC Day 3 forecast
Temperatures are in the 60's.  May be a few isolated showers
00z EPS control 2 m temp Sun PM (image weatherbell)
You can see the cold in Maine from the wind shift.  A brief warm up early next week is in the works as a ridge builds in.  More on that tomorrow, have a good Thursday.

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