Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Measurable Rain!

Measurable rain will fall in Southern New England today for the first time in over two weeks.  An upper level cut off low pressure system will keep the weather unsettled until a cold front kicks everything out on Saturday.  Temperatures should warm to the low 70's late this morning and early this afternoon before the rain moves in.  This may contribute to the development of a few thunderstorms.

Observations/Short Range Forecast
The radar this morning shows precipitation on the doorstep of SW CT.
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 538 am
Bands of rain are developing and will slowly rotate onshore off the Atlantic.  Note that the radar does not pick a signal too far offshore. Check out the water vapor loop and you can see the blossoming thunderstorms 
GOES_E Water Vapor Satellite 545 am (image NOAA)
A mild air mass is in place; temps only dropped to around 50 last night as clouds trapped heat effectively last night; it was not able to radiate back into space.  As of 5 am
2 m temps 5 am (image weatherbell)
The first band of rain will be pushing into CT in the next few hours.  It will reach Southwest MA around 10 am.  Southern RI and Western MA will start to see precipitation around 11, the rest of MA between 12 and 130.  Temperatures at noon (in areas where it is not raining)
09z RAP 2 m temps 12 PM (image weatherbell)
The EURO and 00z NAM hires seem to have the best handle on the precipitation so far.  A heavy band of showers and embedded thunderstorms will work from Southwest to Northeast peaking in intensity between 2-5 PM
00z NAM hires simulated radar 2 pm (image weatherbell)
This is just one model projection but it looks reasonable.  So how much rain today?  When will it end?
It will end (this part) around midnight in MA.  Most of CT will be done by 8 PM.  RI will be done around 10 pm.  Here is a look at the totals
06z NAM total precip through 2 am Thur (image weatherbell)
Here is the Storm Prediction Center Thunderstorm outlook for today
SPC day 1 outlook
Extreme Western CT and MA are included.  As I've stated above a few storms through out all of SNE is possible.  Look for another post around 5 PM tonight that will touch on tomorrow, Friday, and the weekend.

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