Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Another Warm, Humid Afternoon

A cold front dropped South yesterday afternoon slashing temperatures and firing off some severe thunderstorms.  That front will turn back into a warm front this morning and lift north of the region again.  Temperatures will again soar into the 80's and dew points will approach 70.  Therefore just like yesterday some big thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.

Current Conditions/Observations
As of 4 am most of New England was around 50 degrees
2 m temps 4 am (image weatherbell)
Temps in NYC are already near 70 so a sharp temperature gradient is already in place.  Not surprisingly there is heavy shower activity in the region, in association with a weak wave of low pressure
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 548 am
The front was located just south of New England as of 330 am
WPC Surface Analysis 330 am 
By 8 am the front will be lifting into Central New England
WPC surface forecast 8 am

Short Range Forecast
Temperatures will take a bit longer to recover this morning due to the presence of scattered showers.  The rain clear by 8 and by 11 temps will be near 70.  When the sun pops out it feel hazy hot and humid.  Here are the dew points at 2 PM
06z NAM hires 2 m dew points 2 pm (image weatherbell)
Temperatures at 4 pm 
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 4 pm (image weatherbell)
This may be overdone, but after seeing a few locations in Western MA and CT reach 90 yesterday I don't think it is.  NYC will be near 95 with a dew point in the low 70's.  That is oppressive.  Just like yesterday some areas in NE MA will struggle to get out of the low 60's.  The SPC does not (yet) see the severe threat but it does see a thunderstorm threat
SPC Day 1 outlook
I think the yellow moves east into at least Western New England.  Keep an eye to the sky this afternoon.  Tonight temperatures drop to the mid 50's from the MA/RI/CT border northward.  Temps should sit around 60 in CT/RI as the boundary does not clear Southern New England like it did tonight.  

Thursday- High 80, dew points mid 60's, scattered showers and thunderstorms
Temperatures will warm into the 70's by mid morning tomorrow.  High pressure in Central Canada will finally drive the cold front that has been pounding the Central US off the east coast.  This will bring showers and storms to the area in the afternoon and evening hours.
WPC surface forecast Thurs PM 
Thursday night SNE stays in the low 60's.  On Friday a wave of low pressure will form along the front and throw more showers and thunderstorms into New England.

Friday- High 72, dew point low 60's, overcast with rounds of showers and thunderstorms.  Some may be severe.  
WPC surface forecast Friday 8 am
When the front passes temperatures will drop into the 50's.  Here is the 2 pm temperatures
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 pm Fri (image weatherbell)
Maximum temps on Friday will occur in the morning from Worcester County on west (including N RI, CT).  There is the potential for a lot of rain in the next 3 days.  Here is the WPC idea
WPC 3 day precip totals

Memorial Day Weekend First Look
The forecast is not good.  Saturday will be overcast and wet.  I'm not ready to call it a washout yet but its trending that way.  High temperatures Saturday afternoon will be running nearly 25 degrees below normal
00z EURO 2 m temp anomaly Sat PM (image weatherbell)
High temperatures will be around 50.  Low temperatures will be in the upper 30's.  This is significant late season cold.  Sunday is not much better but there will be less cold.  Monday is the day to cookout as it will be dry with temps in the 60's.  Here is the weekend precipitation
WPC day 4-5 precip outlook
This is mainly Saturday as a slow moving coastal low makes the weather miserable.  I'll track any storms this afternoon, have a good one.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Biggest Snow Storm Of The Season Heads To Impact Region Tonight

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Norton, MA has issued a * Winter Storm Warning * from 7 PM tonight until 10 AM Wednesday.  A widesprea...