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Showing posts from January, 2013

Heavy Winds/Rain Clearing This Morning

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Power outages are rapidly increasing in number across Southern New England as a powerful low pressure system and associated cold front push through the region.  As of 610 AM the highest wind gust so far is 80 MPH atop Blue Hill Observatory in Milton.  There was a 60 MPH gust in Boston.  The winds will die down by 9 AM and rain should clear by 10.
Here is the surface chart this morning First we see a 974 mb low over Southeast Canada and the long cold front with it.  Notice the High Pressure dropping into the Montana/North Dakota region.  This high pressure is ushering cold dry Arctic air into the US.   In fact here are the US temperatures; New England and Florida are the warmest two locations That will change today.  Here is the forecast temperatures for 1 PM The RAP is also hinting at a snow squall later this evening Temperatures will return to the upper 20's tomorrow.  There are some snow chances for the weekend and next week.  I have interest in a Sunday evening system and a Tu…

High Wind Watch Today/Tonight

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Heavy rain and damaging winds will accompany a cold front through the region tonight.  After the passage temperatures will return to winter, albeit not as cold as last weeks snap.  Quick forecast...

First batch of rain moves through early afternoon
The winds will be gusty all day as the low level jet stream is helping to push temperatures into the 50's This will break records in the Northeast.  The winds at 5 PM Finally the winds overnight, at the storms peak (5 AM) Total precip That's all for now, on the road today.  Will tweet updates @zgreenwx






Temperatures to Rise Above 32 Today!

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For the first time since the afternoon on January 20th temperatures will rise above freezing (albeit barely).  A very strong cold front is developing in the Midwest/Great Plains and pushing warmth into Southern New England.  A severe weather outbreak is expected today in these regions here

Temperatures today will be in the low 30's.  The coldest spots in the region may not break 32 but I am expecting a high of 37 for Boston, 34 for Worcester, 36 for Providence, and 36 for Hartford.  Winds will begin to increase overnight.  As I wrote yesterday I expect some rain tomorrow.  This is an interesting set up and it wouldn't surprise me to see Wind Advisories or High Wind Watches posted today.  
This is valid 7 PM EST tonight. I've circled the subtropical Atlantic High pressure and a wave low pressure that will form and deepen along the baroclinic (thermal, or temperature gradient) zone.  Here is the forecast surface temperatures at the same time You can see the contrast between …

Light Snow/Ice Moves in This Afternoon

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Here are the probabilities for at least an inch of snowfall today
Here are the probabilities for 0.01 inches of ice or more
TIMING Snow will begin by 3 PM Here is the 4 PM simulated radar from one of our high resolution short range weather models Generally I expect 1-3 inches South of Route 2 and 3-6 inches for Central and Northern New England.  Some ice is possible although it appears to be more of a threat for the Mid Atlantic states.  The majority of the snow ends before midnight although some will still be working off the Cape and Islands.  
Finally it will be a chilly start but the warm up begins tomorrow.  It will be brief but it may approach 60 Wednesday.  You have to love New England





Light Snow for Monday Afternoon Commute

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The temperatures will continue to moderate today but before we can get into the upper 30's and 40's we will see a burst of light snow tomorrow night.  I expect light accumulation for most with the highest totals in New Hampshire and Maine.  Temperatures today will be in the upper 20's and lows tonight will be in the upper teens.  Its been 7 days for most people since we went above freezing and that streak will continue until tomorrow night.
Here is the surface chart The boundary between the warm and cold air will work towards the north and east today.  A snow/ice storm is impacting the Midwest and that will come our way.  The morning commute will be problem free from a weather perspective here are the temperatures for 7 AM Northern New England stays cold but Southern New England is in the upper teens and low 20's.  The snow should move in around 3 or 4 PM.  A warm front lifting Northeast will be the cause of this storm.  Arctic air is in place and the warm air will wan…

Still Cold. Snow to Stay Offshore

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Cold Arctic air remains in place across Southern New England and that will do two things.  1) It will be cold and 2) It will push the majority of a snowstorm out to sea.  I can't rule out a light dusting for some areas tonight and 1-3 on the Cape.  Regardless we are starting off cold again, albeit a bit "warmer" than yesterday. Here are the forecast wind chills from the RAP for 7 AM A windchill advisory is in effect until 10 AM for much of Massachusetts and parts of RI and CT. Here is the surface chart for this morning.  I've circled a pair of low pressure systems which is combine energy in the Ohio Valley and then reform a new center on the Coastal Plain.  I've drawn the wind direction around the high pressure in the Northeast, helping to suppress any waves from jumping up the coast. So what to expect and how much?  Here is what last night's EURO run printed out in precipitation amounts It will be cold so can we saturate the atmosphere?  At 700 mb there is s…

Below Zero This Morning

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The next several hours will be brutally cold and the wind chills will make it feel like Central Canada.  This cold air should keep the next storm system to our south.  I expect a light dusting for most people, much like the last storm.  I also expect the highest snow amounts to be in Southwest Connecticut and the Outer Cape, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.  As has often been the case this winter, computer guidance has picked up on a storm days away and then loses it as the event comes closer.  Here are the current temps Here are the projected wind chills for 7 am EST Air temperatures should slowly moderate into the lower to mid teens.  Wind chills will briefly climb above zero this afternoon before increasing again when the sun goes down.  Tonight we again drop down close to zero with windchills again approaching -20 F.  Try not to stay outside in this too long today it will be nasty.  
Moving along to the potential snow Friday night into Saturday.  Guidance has is in good agree…

Bundle Up!

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Its very cold this morning across all of  New England.  Luckily for Southern New England the winds didn't relax last night and there was some cloud cover.  That allowed temperatures to stay above zero but the winds are making temperatures feel well below zero.  Here are the air temperatures from 5 am
Here is the short term predicted wind chill (-7am EST)
For that reason a Windchill Advisory is in effect until 10 am for readings 15-18 degrees below zero
What is causing the Arctic Air?  In simple terms cold high pressure from Canada is sending true Arctic air into the Northeast and Great Lakes.
This will continue in fact tonight and tomorrow morning will be downright cold.
Still watching the potential for snow overnight Friday into Saturday.  It doesn't appear to the computer guidance to be a big deal at all.  However there are several things that make me question the model solution a bit; we have time to watch the system.  Here is the HPC 1 inch snowfall probability for Friday …