Early Glance At AFC Champ Weather

For the 7th time in 12 years the Patriots will be in the AFC Championship Game.  I'll take a look at the weather for the game but first lets see whats going on in the region and in the country.

5 Am 2 M Temps (wxbell)

One can see the east is still warmer than the west.  Zoming in on the Northeast

5 am 2 M Temp (wxbell)

The Arctic air will begin to invade in waves.  First wave moves through tonight.  Here is the Northern Hemisphere surface analysis from this morning

Northern Hemisphere Surface, click to enlarge

Surface low pressure in Dixie will make its way towards the coast with heavy rain to its east and south and heavy snow in portions of the North Carolina mountains into Virginia.  Although the NWS in Philadelphia has hoisted Winter Storm Advisories and Watches, it doesn't appear all that likely to climb to the north.  Part of the reason is the cold front being driven into the Northeast from Canada.  A 1030 High pressure is helping to to push the Arctic air south.  Here are tonight's lows off the EPS

EPS 2 m min temps valid 7 am Friday (image wxbell)

The temps may drop into the upper single digits for some even into Massachusetts.  Now onto the close call by snow.  The Cape has the best chances to see some snow.  The HPC gives a 10 percent chance for 4 inches of snow

HPC snowfall probs >4 inches valid 7 am Thurs-7 am Fri (EST)

I'm skeptical to say the least; here is the NAM Friday morning

NAM 1000-500 thickness Friday 7 am est (image wxbell)

Its looks like close but no cigar.  However I must point out there is some guidance suggesting an inch as far back as Worcester then out through Boston.  If anything changes today I'll try to be on it.  Saturday appears to be a seasonable day, perhaps above average with temps creeping into the upper 30's.   Saturday morning will be cold however.  The next wave of Arctic air looks to hold off until Sunday night.  Pats game looks dry with temps like this

EPS valid Sunday 7 pm-1am (image wxbell)

Game temps will obviously drop throughout the game.  We will have to watch the timing on the Arctic air.  It could begin to move before Sunday night in fact there may be a snow shower Saturday overnight.  Plan on it being cold in Foxboro.  Have a good day! The Pats forecast will update as needed.