Calm Weather to Begin Week

There has been some chatter about 50 degree warmth this week.  While that will be possible in coastal cities such as Boston and Providence, the majority of the region will be in the upper 30's and lower 40's.  Overnight lows will be in the lower 20's for most of the region with lows in the upper teens in the usual colder  spots.  Very little precipitation is expected in the next 5 days.  There will be isolated snow flurries this afternoon and early evening in addition to the light snow some received overnight.  The next storm chance is the end of the week/weekend and it looks to be wet, not white.

Here are the regional temperatures from 5 AM
5 AM 2 m temperatures (1)
Temperatures have rebounded nicely, here is 9 AM
9 AM 2 m temperatures (2)
In general here is what to expect this afternoon
1/6/13 00z Euro Ensemble 2 m Temp forecast valid 1- 7 PM
This model, the Euro Ensemble (EPS) likes temperatures into the 30's for most and 40's along the coast.  Here is what we look like at the surface
Surface Analysis 840 AM
High pressure is dominating over Canada and this will move through the northeast later today.  Northern New England and upstate New York have the best chance to see some snowfall from this system.  At the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere the Northeast is near boundary from cool/mild today, but we will re-enforce some of the cold tonight
1/6/13 06z GFS 500 mb heights valid Monday 1 am
Where the green starts can be thought of as the warm/cool boundary (generally speaking).  Where this dips heights are falling which lowers temperatures.  Where this pumps up (like the Southern Plains) heights rise and so do temperatures.
1/6/13 06 gfs 250 mb Jet valid 1 am Monday
At the same time here is the jet stream at the 250 mb level.  I am using 250 rather than 300 because there is more of a west to east type of flow across the Northern Hemisphere which is a bit more mild.  Notice the band of red and pink off the east coast.  Known as a "jet streak" this helps confirm the above average temperatures for next week.  This strong jet streak will help deepen a trough over the Atlantic while lifting a ridge northward across the Eastern US.

1/6/13 EPS 500 mb forecast Friday Night

For the 5 day period 
GFS 5 day temperature anomaly 
One thing to remember is that there is a snowpack and its January.  The sun is not strong and average temperatures are in the low 30's upper 20's.  A few degrees above average will feel nice but we will not be approaching any record highs.  The 8-16 day period begins to restore winter to the lower 48
January 14-22
This is also just one of several computer models.  They all pretty much support winter returning after Jan 18 or so to New England.  Here are some city by city forecasts around New England.  

GFS Providence
GFS Boston
GFS Worcester
GFS Hartford
Just as a bonus I want to show what the GFS is predicting for Las Vegas on Friday
GFS Las Vegas
There isn't much support among the other models but a deep trough is going to dig into the west and an upper level system may cut off.  Measurable snow occurs once every 10 years or so in Vegas.  Have a good Sunday!

Images are credited to Dr. Ryan Maue and Weatherbell


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