Single Digits Temps and Snow Friday/Saturday

By all accounts it was a blown forecast for last nights snowfall.  It was an unusual situation and it showed; computer guidance struggled and a lot of meteorologists struggled as well.  This is going to be a busy weather week so we must move on.  There is growing potential for a moderate-major Nor'Easter to kick off the weekend.  In the meantime cold Arctic air has invaded the northeast

2 m Temps 5 am EST (image wxbell)

On the surface charts

HPC surface analysis 532 AM EST

The cold front and weak low pressure have pushed offshore.  Strong Arctic high pressure is in control for the central US.  The cold will lock into place for the next several days.  Here are the forecast morning lows for Thursday

00z EURO 2 m min temps Thursday 7 am EST

We already have one ingredient needed for a big storm.  Two areas of low pressure, one in the southern stream moving out of Texas and one in the northern stream diving out of Alberta will combine energy in the Ohio Valley and spawn a new low pressure center along the coast.  The new storm will pass offshore and it looks to be in the prime spot for a classic New England snowstorm.  Here is last nights EURO and 2 m temperature for Saturday morning

00z EURO 2 m temp and precip valid Saturday 7 am (image wxbell)

Ratios will not be the standard 10-1, rather more like 20-1 or 30-1.  Anyway this can still slide south and out to sea.  The NAO is not forecast to be overly negative however

NAO forecast

The AO is forecast to remain strongly negative 

AO

Here is the PNA

PNA

With the NAO neutral to slightly negative, negative AO, positive PNA the big players are favorable for snow.  Lets see how this evolves.